The Nation's State

Almost killed by an M79 grenade

2010-09-07T02:53:00.004+08:00

First photos, approximately 1 minute after the blast, I am unconscious and staring vacantly.

On May 19, after two months on the frontlines of the Red Shirt protest, I was hit by an M79 grenade and nearly lost my life.

I had changed tactics and was travelling with the army. Considering the Thai military were shooting protesters, civilians, and journalists indiscriminately (including a Canadian friend of mine who was shot three times and barly survived the trip to the hospital), it seemed sensible precaution to make.

But Red Shirt protesters, the so-called black shirts, were also armed and shooting and was I was photographing the gun battle on Ratchadamri and Sarasan just outside on Lumpini Park.

While I took cover with troops, black shirts launched a series of M79 grenades on to an empty road, two into Lumpin Park, one nears Silom, and one right onto a group of soldiers and myself.

The blast sent 24 pieces of shrapnel tearing through my back and legs, broke a number of ribs, and punctured both my lung and colon.

Three additional pieces of shrapnel had struck the back of my head, shattered my skull, and entered my brain. A journalist would later tell me he found pieces of my skull on the ground.

I was unconscious, heavily bleeding, and my eyes were open and staring vacantly. Military medics at the scene took my pulse, couldn't find one, and pronounced me dead.

The shameless bastards also stole my camera.

Journalists soon arrived, noticed that I was attempting to breath, and rushed me to hospital.

In fact, the journalists and civilian medics made a great personal risk to help me as there was still heavy machine gun fire in the area. I am deeply grateful for what they did.

I woke up three days later in a Bangkok intensive care unit on Silm road (apparently I was already talking but I have no memory).

While I was torn up by shrapnel wounds that would take an astounding seven weeks to stop bleeding, my broken ribs were aching, and I was disoriented from hearing loss in my left year, my head injuries were the most worrying.

Shrapnel had penetrated my skull and hit my brain. The neurosurgeon was able to removes two pieces but the third was too dangerous to remove and remains lodged in my head.

I was completely paralyzed on the entire right hand side. I also had serious trouble seeing and recognizing objects and couldn’t even recognize myself in a mirror.

Despite my injuries, I surprised everyone – including my gaggle of doctors – by checking myself out of the hospital and hobbling away just three weeks later.

And three months later, I have emerged with very few permanent injuries. Hearing damage, many scars, and an ugly limp, but I am walking and back at work.

So, needless to say, I am taking a break from bloging and concentrating on physiotherapy and work.

But, considering Thailand’s political turmoil is far from over, I don’t think it will be a long break.

Weapons of the weak

2010-05-18T22:56:00.005+08:00

All images from today's (May 18) clashes in Din Daeng between red shirts and the military snipers.

Elements within the red shirt movement have weapons, serious weapons of war.

About five minutes after Seh Dang was hit by a sniper's bullet while walking within the red's barricade, I watched while taking cover from an intense firefight, a black-clad guard assemble an M-16 assault rifle and return fire towards the hi-rise buildings surrounding the red camp.

Unfortunately, the lights had been doused and there was not enough ambient light to take a photograph. Using a flash would have been dangerous.

Yet, what is remarkable, is that this was the first and only time I have ever seen a weapon of war. I did interview Kwanchai Poipana, a red leader in Ubon, who dramatically placed a pistol on the table in response to my question of what he would do if the red's current protest was unsuccessful. I understood the gesture as an act, convincing and one that limited my further questions, but an act with a weapon that is common in Thailand.

Despite over two years interviewing and photographing them, I have only seen one weapon of war. Despite having covered the red's last two months in Bangkok with near-daily coverage and many late nights with them, I have only seen the one.

And while I don't doubt that there are well armed elements associated with the reds, they currently are fighting an extraordinarily lopsided battle.

Sharpened sticks, erratic fireworks, noisy but useless large bamboo-made canons, sling shots, and rocks are trying to fight against snipers hiding behind sandbags and perched on rooftops.

The grim statistics back this up. Between May 13 and 17, the government reported that at least 35 people had been killed, all civilians, and at least 232 wounded. There were no military forces killed.

Were these people terrorists warranting a sniper's bullet, wouldn't the government be parading weapons of war in front of the already subservient local media?

Wouldn't there be serious casualties on the military side?

And wouldn't the masses of local and international media be filming the reds with war weapons if they had them?

While the Center for Resolution of Emergency Situations (CRES) and disgraced-former-academic-turned-shameless-government-mouth-piece Panitan have been calling the reds "terrorists', all I have seen and all the media has really been able to capture is the determination of an angry and disenfranchised group of people willing to trade their lives for very little, if any, way of winning against the military might of the Thai army.

Note: Today was the first time I have seen this 'toy'. It makes an extraordinary boom, but hardly manages to propel an empty water bottle more than a couple feet in the air.

Note: peering around the corner looking for snipers.

Note: Frontline protesters, with flagrant disregard for personal safety, plan their next move towards the military lines will taking cover behind a burned out garbage truck.

Note: Two men take a wounded protester, apparently shot in the left temple or ear by a sniper, to hospital by motobike.

Bangkok burns

2010-05-16T21:18:00.003+08:00

All photos from Din Deang district this afternoon (May 16th).

Note: Spotting military snipers in the buildings. Shots rang out periodically all day and there were many injuries and likely some deaths.

Note: Molatove cocktail.

Live fire zone

2010-05-16T01:55:00.001+08:00

All photos from today (May 15th) on Rama 4 in Bonkai district near Klong Toi.

Like many of the last posts, there is too much to say and no time but I should note one thing. I asked many of the protesters at the site what they thought was happening in Thailand. The big picture question, not just the conflict on Rama 4 road that they were engaged in and I was photographing, but what these clashes mean to them and the future of the country.

There was, of course, some variation, but the term that was most often used was 'civil war' (or songkram klanmueng - สงครามกลางเมือง)

Trying to defeat the red shirts through military means is bringing Thailand to the precipice of civil war.

Note: The helmet was from a protester who was reportedly shot and killed by a military sniper and the man holding the helmet is pointing out where the bullet entered the helmet.

Note: Fighting the military with fireworks.

Clashes in Bangkok

2010-05-15T03:04:00.001+08:00

Bangkok burning; road block near Victory Monument. Residents claimed the military shot two locals on their way home. 10PM My 14th.

Havent had much time to blog and have had to deal with the near-fatal shooting of a good friend who was shot by the military. And while there is too much to say, I can not say much at this time but will post photos in chronological order starting with May 13th and followed by today's (14th) clashes.

Some photos are graphic and might not want to be viewed by all.

Note: Seh Deang at 6:33 PM on May 13th. He was shot by a sniper at around 7PM.

Note: Motorbike taxi driver shot with a rubber bullet.

Note: Immediately after the above photo of the protester shooting fireworks, two shots rang out and a protester behind me was hit in the head and died.

May 14th on Rama 4 road:

Note: This shot was taken while trapped in the middle of a raging gunfight between the military on the BTS pedestrian bridge on Silom road and unseen, but certainly active, red shirt guards shooting M-16 (which i saw but could not photograph the night before right after Seh Deang was shot inside the red barricades) or other war rifles. There were countless thunderous explosions which reverberated and shook the buildings and might have been M79 grenades.

Nakhon Ratchaprasong

2010-05-09T05:33:00.001+08:00

Negotiations are looking more and more likely to ease the immediate crisis and see the red's encampment in the ritzy Ratchaprasong shopping district come to an end.

And while there is certainly a chance that the peace process could be scuttled, Monday could be the end of what some are calling 'Nakhon Ratchaprasong' or 'Ratchaprasong State'.

The fact that the red's protest site has been a delineated territory with its own distinct political culture, social norms, political hierarchy, civil service, and police force, it did warrant, even if just a little factiously, the term nakhon.

With the end in sight, I thought I would post some random scenes from in and around Nakhon Ratchaprasong over the past couple of weeks.

*Note: General Prem is being featured on the screen behind Veera.

*Note Natthawut Saikua sleeping on the stage, the time recored on my camera is 5:35am on 08/04/2010. A response to claims that red leaders were sleeping in the nearby 5-star hotels or genuine commitment?

Terrorists and Ratchaprasong

2010-05-04T14:55:00.001+08:00

Notice taped to a statue at Central World (Ratchaprasong) on Saturday May 1st.

Let’s just hope hypocrites don’t get sick

2010-05-02T04:52:00.001+08:00

While partisan Thai journalists have few, if any, ethics, doctors are supposed to.

Yet back in 2008, Thai doctors forgot their Hippocratic oath and refused to treat patients:

Reuters on October 8 2008:

Doctors at Bangkok's main state hospitals said they would not treat police or politicians involved in Tuesday's clashes.

"No treatment for police and wicked politicians in this room," said a sign posted outside an exam room at Chulalongkorn Hospital, although hospital officials said they did not endorse the boycott.

Of course, such a disgraceful episode is conveniently forgotten in the acerbic hypocrisy of the partisan Thai press as the Bangkok Post's hate-filled opinion piece demonstrates:

Let's just hope the reds don't ever fall sick

I felt a sting in my eyes and a peppery taste of tears welling up in my throat the minute I saw the photo of an elderly woman being wheeled out of Chulalongkorn Hospital to be put in a taxi so that she could go and receive medical treatment at a ``safer'' hospital.

Chulalongkorn Hospital had no choice but to shut its doors to new out-patients except emergency cases, and evacuate its in-patients to other hospitals after red shirt leader Payap Panket led a number of guards and protesters in storming the hospital on Thursday night, citing their fear - later proven unfounded - that the hospital was housing soldiers.

Let's just hope that ethics, one day in the future, return to the Thai press.

All paths now officially lead to the palace

2010-04-27T06:50:00.003+08:00

Red shirt protesters arriving in Bangkok carrying a portrait of the king. March 14, 2010.

The biggest threat to the royalty has always been the royalists.

And despite the dangers of dragging the palace into the political fray for their benefit, Abhisit and his backers have done exactly that.

From the Bangkok Post:

The Centre for the Resolution to Emergency Situations claims to have uncovered a plot to overthrow the monarchy.

The CRES said the network behind the plot included key leaders of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship, members of the Puea Thai Party and former banned politicians, academics and hosts of community radio programmes.

The prime minister and the armed forces have long suspected the UDD rally had a higher purpose than just forcing a dissolution of the House of Representatives.

I was still hoping, despite indications to the contrary, that Thailand's political troubles would find some common ground and be able to resolve the conflict before it took another dangerous escalation.

But now that the wounded government has taken this desperate step, they are taking Thailand on a path towards civil war.

Long live the king.

Scenes from Silom April 22

2010-04-23T20:01:00.003+08:00

Blood stained stairs on Silom where one of the M79 grenades landed, the sticker reads: "we love the king"

Briefly, as I am on the way to Silom again tonight, I am posting some images from last night's violence on Silom road.

I arrived after the M79 grenades had exploded. For comments on such violence and the general state of ungovernability in Thailand see M79's and Ungovernability.

When I arrived, mob violence by PAD (yellow shirts, multicolored shirts, or whatever name they are using today) was in full swing and they were again setting upon people they suspected were reds.

Yet violence mostly raged between the PAD and the red frontline. Both sides fought spiritedly and the sound of breaking bottles, breaking windows, vulgar insults, and thousands of metal pieces of debris ricocheting off walls, cars, and signs was non-stop.

Police were doing nothing.

At one point, some police tried to clear the PAD but were violently rebuffed by the mob.

PAD members complained bitterly that the police were not protecting them from the reds. This was also in relation to the M79 attacks which had caused the PAD to scream and hiss at the police while cheering when military troops moved through the lines.

Things further degenerated with skirmishes raging between the PAD and the reds and between the PAD and the police.

While police tried to hold their lines, the PAD pelted them with bottles and rocks launched from slingshots.

The whole time, rocks and other metal objects were being launched at the PAD from the red's fortified barrier. Reds also launch a number of fireworks at the PAD and there were many loud explosions that were likely fireworks.

While tensions were high, a moment of levity came when a PAD member with a slingshot ran up to a couple of journalists taking shelter behind a firetruck, and while scanning the ground, ask if anyone had a flashlight to help him find rocks or other ammunition for his slingshot. We all laughed, wished him luck, but we would be somewhat compromised to help in the fray.

At about 11:40 pm, the police were either ordered to clear the PAD or had simply had enough of being at the receiving end of the hostility.

Police formed a line at the end of Silom road, started thumbing their truncheons against their shields, and then began moving into the PAD.

The PAD threw rocks, bottles, sticks, metal barriers, and tried to drag razor wire in front of the police as they retreated down the street. One guy even swung a large fire extinguisher at the police (see bellow).

Once under the Sala Deang BTS station, the PAD were trapped by lines of military couched bellow their riot shields.

It was chaos as they funneled into the few spaces between troops as they were running in an open sprint with the cops right behind.

When the police caught them it was violent retribution. Those that struggled were beaten.

It was another ugly night of violence on Silom road and likely not the last.

Note the small boy firing the sling shot, this is the second night he has been there. He is about 12 years old.

Yellow lynch mob

2010-04-22T17:03:00.006+08:00

All photos taken last night (April 21) at the intersection of Silom road and Rama 4.

Clashes erupted between yellows and reds on Silom road last night.

The red shirts were set up behind their formidable tire and bamboo wall on one side and riot control police were stationed on the opposite side. Also facing the red shirt frontline was the military who were perched up in the pedestrian walkway with a large number of well armed troops with M16s trained on the reds.

Amongst the police, the so-called "multicolored" protesters had gathered. But make no mistake, they are yellow shirts or People's Alliance for Democracy simply re-branded.

Their name may change, but what remains the same is their violence, anger, and intolerance.

The yellow mob (and i do mean to use the word mob rather than protesters) had worked themselves up into a frothing anger while their leaders were exchanging taunts over loudspeakers with the opposing red camp.

Pitched battles broke out in which both reds and yellows threw bottles and traded sling-shot rounds. Ball bearings, marbles, and other metal objects caused a number of injuries. I was hit in the forehead by a piece of metal while walk back towards the yellow shirts but it could just as well have been a ricochet fired by the reds.

Then the situation became more violent and truly ugly.

The yellows began attacking people near them they suspected of being red shirts. An older motorcycle taxi driver, a young man claiming to be a off-duty soldier, a Thai journalist caught carrying a UDD membership card, and a somewhat ignorant Western tourist who was on the way the the Sala Deang BTS station.

It was true mob violence with no rationale.

The yellows punched, kicked, spit, scratched, and broke bottles over their victims heads.

They also threatened the press who were filming their violence. They accused us of not filming the 'right' violence and aggressively tried to tell us to stop filming them and go to the other side to film the reds.

At one point, the lynch mob stormed the police barrier at the swank Dusit Thani Hotel and tried to get inside. They were demanding the police handover a victim the police had previously saved.

While the police and military were unresponsive to the point of being implicit, they did help those being lynched and this did prevent anyone from being killed.

Now that yellows and reds are fighting, it would be logical to assume that more clashes and mob violence will take place on Bangkok's streets in the coming days.

Further bloodshed must be avoided at all costs

2010-04-22T14:32:00.002+08:00

A rather apt and surprisingly assertive statement from the AHRC:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE AHRC-STM-064-2010
April 21, 2010

A Statement by the Asian Human Rights Commission

THAILAND: URGENT--Further bloodshed must be avoided at all costs

This evening, April 21, there are many disturbing reports of a possible new attack to disperse anti-government protestors that have continued to assemble in Bangkok, calling for the unelected premier, Abhisit Vejjajiva, to step down and for new elections to be held. There are grave and legitimate fears that further violence is imminent and that more lives will be lost. On April 10, at least 25 people died and hundreds were injured when the army moved on assembled demonstrators. Although the government denied that the military on that occasion used live ammunition, all evidence is to the contrary.

The government of Thailand should by now be aware that the use of soldiers to dislodge these demonstrators is totally counterproductive. Not only has it failed in its basic objective, but it has also again dragged the country's reputation to new lows, ironically, just as its diplomats are bidding for a seat on the United Nations Human Rights Council. The government must know that it will face worldwide opprobrium if security personnel again attack and kill demonstrators.

But beyond the condemnation and outrage at home and abroad, it must also recognize that what is at stake in Thailand today is not the stability of a district or accessibility of a street, but the future of a society.

In dealing with the demonstrators, the government must bear in mind that it alone has the capacity to completely destroy respect for state institutions through rash and disorganised responses. Although others can damage these institutions, it is the persons responsible for their upkeep who can cause truly great and lasting damage. The deep loss in public respect for state institutions over recent years, especially loss of confidence in the judiciary, is primarily a consequence not of public actions but of the wrongheaded and ill-intended acts of successive administrations. Any resort to violence now will only further diminish the standing of key state agencies, causing further setbacks to the decades-long project to build rational institutions for a humane and intelligent society.

The Asian Human Rights Commission urgently reminds the government of Thailand of the special responsibility that it has to respond carefully to a complicated situation. The government cannot absolve itself of this obligation. Nor do the exigencies of the present circumstances make it less pressing; on the contrary, they make it all the more important. Further bloodshed must be avoided at all costs. The confusion and tragedy of recent days must not be turned into catastrophe.

4:30 Am on Silom

2010-04-19T09:33:00.001+08:00

Rumors were rampant that a military crackdown against the red shirts was due at 4am.

Just after 4, troops rolled down Silom and took up position on the pedestrian bridge aiming their rifles at protesters.

Thousands of troops massed behind them on Silom road and stretched razor wire across the sidewalks...

And then it was over. Nothing happened.

By 7 am the morning office crowds were nervously speedwalking past the troops.

The crackdown has yet to happen.

Red Revolution

2010-04-18T23:30:00.004+08:00

*Rough cut in very low-resolution

Red Revolution is an on-the-ground journey into the so-called “red-shirt” protest movement that has been locked in an increasingly violent political struggle against Thailand’s government. This 22-minute documentary joins the protesters as they march into Bangkok to demand democracy and equality from the country’s traditional ruling elites whom the protesters claim are holding back their democratic rights and have created gross economic and judicial inequalities.

Told through the first-person narrative of a photographer who has been documenting their struggle, the documentary witnesses their protest as it evolves from a non-violent movement into a series of bloody street battles leaving hundreds injured and 25 dead. Ultimately, the story reveals how the protesters have begun a dangerous struggle for Thailand's democratic future and are bringing the country to the brink of revolution.

Live rounds fired

2010-04-13T02:26:00.001+08:00

Military pointing shotgun as protesters push against troops. April 10 on Makawan Bridge.

Empowered by massive media censorship, Abhisit’s government has been spreading the bold lie that troops were not shooting live rounds and trying to paint the troops as innocent victims of rampaging red shirt protesters.

This lie has been told by former-academic-turned-government-revisionist, Panitan Wattanayagorn and by

Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban who said: "he had issued orders for soldiers to be equipped only with shields, batons and tear gas. "They were unarmed, so some of them were killed," he said.

And this lie is being perpetuated by Thailand’s controlled and complicit media.

As a witness to the carnage on the streets in Bangkok on Saturday, it is simply staggering to hear the government making such bold lies.

Thousands of rounds of live ammunition were littering the streets. While I collected a few spent shells that rolled up to my feet still hot from being fired, a number of protesters had collected live rounds. Here is a photo of a protester holding one of them:

All are marked with the RTA – Royal Thai Army – acronym.

That the troops were firing overhead for the majority of the time is certain. The only photographs I have of troops aiming at protesters are with shotguns (above). I collected one spent shotgun shell – contents unknown obviously – and one large rubber bullet that is the circumference of a shotgun shell.

While the spent and live shells are evidence of how bold the distortion of facts is by the government, the video evidence of troops firing and the violent injuries that killed protesters is indisputable.

This footage from France 24 is clear.

What is also clear is that 16 protesters died and many of those died from violent injuries consistent with bullet wounds.

If Thailand had a proper, free media, they should expose the lies that their government is telling them.

Ultra-Royalism

2010-04-13T00:44:00.003+08:00

A red shirt protester showing allegiance to the king, a couple of minutes before major clashes on Makawan Bridge on April 10th.

A provocative article on Prachatai called Abhisit’s last Card: Ultra-Royalism?

"Now that Abhisit is hemorrhaging most if not all of his legitimacy, could he be desperate and callous enough to accuse the red-shirt leadership and the movement of being an anti-monarchist movement?"

Much of the political turmoil in Thailand is drawn in zero-sum terms and if Abhisit and his backers are feeling that they are about to lose it is possible that those who pretend to be protecting the monarchy will be the very ones who drag the monarchy into the center stage of the fray.

It has been said before, but worth repeating, the royalists are truly the biggest threat to royalty in Thailand.

Update 12:20 am:
Then again, maybe the royalty are a threat to themselves.

April 10, Bangkok

2010-04-11T13:18:00.004+08:00

The photos here are in the same order as I shot them from about 10am to 2am. Starts with the clash on

Makkawan Bridge.

Reds triumphant

2010-04-10T01:41:00.000+08:00

Reds were triumphant in Ratchaprasong this evening with possibly the largest turnout so far. It is hard to have perspective on actual numbers but around 100,000 is likely.

Notably, its Bangkok residents which are surging to the protests challenging the stereotype that its only the rural and relatively poor protesting.

While rumors were rampant that a crack down was immanent, it is really hard to see how the reds will be subdued now.

Seh Deang at Ratchaprasop

2010-04-08T07:40:00.008+08:00

Seh Deang at 5 AM in Ratchprasong milling about the protesters like a movie star.

Photo of the Day: Troops retreat from Ratchaprasong

2010-04-07T18:28:00.001+08:00

It was all smiles and handshaking as security forces retreated from Ratchaprasong. Apparently was tense in the morning, but as I arrived at about 10:30 or 11, it was simply triumphant for the reds. The protesters near Ratchadamri formed a line around retreating troop (above) as they walked towards Lumpini Park. One of protesters was even hand-feeding candies to the troops (see photo below).

The only tense moments I witnessed were on Silom and near the seized military jeep and fire trucks. On Silom, as the reds arrived and traffic was halted, some motorists were furious and it seemed a couple were close to swerving into the protesters. At the site of the seized military jeep and fire trucks, including one mounted with the LRAD, there was some tension. The military official negotiating the release of the vehicles looked nervous and, uncharacteristically, one of the red shirt guards tried to stop me from photographing.

Photo of the Day: Red's at Ratchaprasong

2010-04-04T22:38:00.015+08:00

Ugly lese majeste

2010-03-31T23:31:00.010+08:00

A Banksy portrait of the Queen of England.

The ugly appearance of lese majeste/Computer Crimes Act is back and freedom of speech and the press is again under attack.

Chiranuch Premchaiporn, at the liberal Prachatai online news site, was arrested and charged for not censoring user comments fast enough.

As the above picture illustrates, constitutional monarchies like Great Britain have evolved (pun intended) to a point where freedom of speech can coexist with a monarchy.

Yet in Thailand, citizens and foreigners are subject to draconian laws that can send people to jail for not standing up during the royal propaganda played at movie theaters, for expressing political opinion, posting online comments, and in the case of Chiranuch Premchaiporn, for simply not self-censoring free speech fast enough.

Not only is Thailand's lese majeste law an international disgrace, but in perspective of personal freedoms, it is also barbaric.

That anyone can face an astounding 50-year sentence for exercising one of the most basic human rights is astounding.

Political Prisoners Thailand suggests to "watch this case carefully and urges all interested and concerned parties to write to the Thai embassies and consulates in their areas."

I think we also need to push organizations like Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International to take Thailand to task for violating basic human rights.

We should also consider discouraging tourists from visiting Thailand. If Burma's tourism industry is subject to such an embargo, Thailand's continued attacks on human rights warrants similar treatment.

Dont forget, its not just lese majeste which Thailand transgresses on human rights. Thailand is a habitual and abuser of human rights as demonstrated by a number of issues like the Rohingyas being towed out to sea to die or the simple fact that not a single member of the security forces have been been prosecuted for gross human rights violations in the deep south.

And finally, this should serve as an example that Prime Minister Abhisit is simply a liar who should not be trusted.

I remember a triumphant Abhisit last year boldly claiming that "justice" would be the way to measure the success of his government.

By any measure, his government has been a complete failure and it is specifically the failure of justice, as demonstrated by the continued use of lese majeste and the computer crimes act, that shows just how hollow his rhetoric has been all along.

ไชโย! (Chai yo)

M79s and ungovernability

2010-03-27T00:25:00.010+08:00

While the red shirts are gaining traction with their political message of double standards in the judicial system, there is a more serious problem with looming ungovernability in Thailand.

When I first came to Thailand I was told that "only the stupid and the poor go to jail".

And while there are exceptions, this sharp summary of the Thai judicial system is apt.

There are judicial double standards currently being manipulated by Abhisit's disingenuous and ineffectual government and the powerful non-democratic powers which control Thailand, but the real problem is that there simply is not much 'rule of law' anyway.

While we might talk about the manipulation of the judiciary, corrupt police, or simply the scoff-law traits so prevalent in Thai society, the real problem is that major violent crimes conducted in the political arena are rarely, if ever, resolved.

The list is too long to be detailed but major events like the eight new year's eve bombings in 2006 which killed three and injured 38 or the attempted assassination of Sondhi Limthongkul have simply disappeared, like countless other cases, without resolution.

The key point is that political violence - if not simply violence in general - is not only rampant but exists virtually unchecked. Major violent crimes occur with startling frequency and are rarely, if ever, subject to the police arrest, trial, or conviction.

(This is not even mentioning the southern insurgency which will never, and I really do mean never, be resolved without an end to the judicial impunity exercised by state security forces.)

Take the case of M79 grenade launchers as the quintessential example. Not only have M79s been the weapon of choice for the last couple years in a string of unresolved attacks which have escalated in the last couple weeks but there is the more serious issue of M79 manufacturing.

Characteristic of the shambolic enforcement and judicial system, police raids in Ayutthaya and Samut Prakan provinces uncovered workshops producing literally thousands of M79 grenade launchers but failed to explain or resolve the very serious issues of the production of war weapons.

Also characteristic of Abhisit's military-dependent government, groundless and shrill accusations from sycophantic and mindless ministers quickly pointed towards the red shirt protesters as the destination of the M79s.

We should not underestimate what the accusations imply.

Should protesters be arming themselves with thousands of war weapons, the implication is clear. If thousands of weapons were being commissioned by opponents of the government it would mean that Thailand is at the cusp of a serious and bloody civil war.

But, what is more likely, is that Thailand's puppet government, non-democratic leaders, keystone cops, and incompetent judiciary have fostered a serious ungovernability crisis in Thailand.

The big question, and one hardly broached by the local media, was the more likely destination of a large scale commission of war weapons.

Burma would be a logical guess. The Wa and the Tatamadaw are are at it again and it is not exactly a leap of the imagination to think that locally manufactured weapons are being sold to the Wa or the myriad of ethnic separatist groups or drug gangs operating in Burma.

But, the most plausible explanation, is that the M79s were being manufactured for local consumption not for anti-government forces but for the unaccountable Thai military.

If the GT 200 scandal has taught us anything, it is that wildly uncontrolled military spending equals wildly uncontrolled military corruption.

Military corruption - as opposed to bottom-up police corruption - is a top-down process in which weapons procurement is a core source of ill-gotten revenue for Thailand's curiously wealthy generals.

Rumor is that the recent silence around the raids on the manufacture of M79s is not because the police 'investigation' led to the red shirts but because the military had spent x-billion baht on M79s supposedly manufactured abroad but had commissioned them locally (despite serious concerns over quality in which many simply can not be fired) in a standard-practice procurement scheme that would net top generals millions of baht.

And here we have the crux of ungovernability.

How can a state function properly when those supposedly upholding the state are slinging incendiary allegations of civil war to bolster their highly questionable legitimacy while turning a blind eye to blatant military corruption and allowing an already impotent police force to fail, again and again and again, to bring resolution to serious politically-inspired crime?

So, while the red shirts are gaining political capital pointing out a major deficiency in the Thai judicial system, the net result of a chronic lack of law and order means that the state can not accommodate political contestation and is stumbling forward, like an aging alcoholic, towards a crisis of ungovernability.

A gross misstep

2010-03-17T00:08:00.015+08:00

When the UDD (red shirts) marched
triumphantly through bangkok on Monday (March 15) they gained a political victory.

The residents of Bangkok came out to great them, and importantly, came out to support them.

The macabre blood drive that happened today will likely negate

any public victory that they have made.

Yes, it is symbolic and representative of the 'blood of the nation' but it is radical and will serve to alienate the so-called silent majority.

My first hand experience is this; it was simply awful.

The waste of blood which could have been donated to a hospital, the awful way the protesters threateningly threw it at the police, and the vile smell, it was a simply an ugly day and not appropriate for a struggle which claims democracy and equality as their goals.

I think the photos from today, particularly at the Democrat Party office, describe it best.

Photo of the Day: Convoy to 11th Infantry

2010-03-15T18:07:00.005+08:00

Photos from the red shirt convoy to the 11th Infantry Battalion - where the government has set up their command center.

Hard to guess the numbers but certainly much higher than government, military, or the propaganda-oriented ASTV has been stating.

I saw the convoy at about 9am flowing down Pahonyothi road and it simply did not stop.

I finally hitched a ride with the reds at about 11 and there was no end in sight of the convoy.

Notable were the crowds of people gathered on the streets cheering for the reds.

They were Bangkok residents coming out to great and support the reds. Many were waving anything red that they had in their homes or work. I saw red bed sheets and red coffee mugs among other things.

Also notable were the police which came out to wave and some even sported red.

The mood was boisterous, like a party really, and the reds certainly scored a psychological victory by showing residents that there are far more protesters than reported in the media.

Finally, I talked with many people and asked, in Thai, the same question.

What is the most important reason you came to the protest. Is it Thaksin, justice, or democracy?

Everyone claimed democracy as the primary reason.

Two polities, one ungovernable state

2010-03-15T00:13:00.009+08:00

The Bangkok Post is reporting some simply bizarre protest numbers that the Ministry of Interior (MoI) is trying to flog.

46,377 in total with "23,569 red-shirts were from the Northeast, 11,127 from the North, 4,190 from the central region, 3,667 from the East, 2,990 from the West and 834 from the South."

While wildly low, they are also unbelievably detailed to the exact number and location.

While I would put my own first-hand estimate at 200,000+, I think the important thing to remember is that the MoI is probably not floating such imaginatively low numbers for the foreign media or for those who can literally see how absurd their estimate is, but they are likely using their apocryphal numbers for the blissfully ignorant Bangkok middle class.

Watching Thai television this evening, it is remarkable that while the streets are teeming with anti-government protesters, Thai TV is filled with soap operas and game shows.

The news and political talk shows are nearly void of images from the protest and completely void of representatives of the red shirts or dialog on issues fueling red shirt grievances.

Should middle class Bangkok residents chose either their ASTV or government/military media, they might simply remain ignorant of the storm brewing in their city.

Far removed from the soring high-rises, luxury cars, and pleasantly cooled shopping malls is a political movement sown in economic and judicial inequality and the out-right theft of citizens democratic franchise.

The reds are organized, they have an established ideology, and they are growing.

The MoI's hopeful and imaginative numbers are analogous to the hopeful and imaginative idea that the whole red shirt movement is simply a bunch of bumpkins duped and paid by Thaksin.

How long Bangkok will try to sweep the reds away with the trinity of the Military, the Judiciary, and the Democrats remains anyone's guess.

Currently, there is a clearly distinguishable failure of Bangkok based elites to come to grips with the morally questionable suppression of rural voters.

And until the power-brokers in Bangkok begin to negotiate and address the grievances that the reds have, Bangkok and Thailand will remain two very different polities within one ungovernable state.

Photo of the Day: Reds coming to Bangkok

2010-03-14T18:58:00.006+08:00

From Sunday morning in Nonthaburi, reds coming into Bangkok.

The trip was slowed by security forces preventing boats from leaving and then only allowing one boat at a time to leave while only being half full.

At Rama 8 bridge, small navy boats forced them to dock and all reds had to get off. Still, they were not deterred and were in a triumphant mood.

While the government is trying to slow them down, I suspect it will be the weather that will ultimately wear them down.

Photo of the Day: Reds massing

2010-03-13T21:41:00.004+08:00

All photos taken Saturday March 13 from 12 noon until 7:30 PM.

The NSC has estimated that there are about 100,000.

If they continue to grow, they will be moving into historic highs for protesters on the streets.

Will it be a game changer? Will their be violence? Who knows, so many variables that there is no way to know.

Rumors circulating stated that at 9pm the so-called 'third hand' would launch some sort of attack which would justify marshal law and unleash the troops to clear the streets. But, there are always lots of rumors.

Either way, it is a combustible situation on the streets.

Photo of the Day: Showing support

2010-03-13T10:43:00.006+08:00

On the Makwang Bridge last night (March 13) at about 6:10 PM. Large contingent of riot control troops standing guard in the heat when a chauffeured car pulls up and a well-to-do Bangkok resident hands out water for the troops.

Photo of the Day: Dowsing with the Fourth Army

2010-02-19T21:38:00.005+08:00

For those following the GT 200 scandal and the military's continued use of the million-baht-coat-hanger, this photo might be amusing.

It is an actual dowsing rod from the Sufficiency Village training center across the road from the Sirindhorn base in Yala province and was being used to show local villagers how to find water. I guess they might as well have been looking for explosives.

Gen Pichet Wisaijorn is observing. November 2009.

Autonomy as a means to ending a brutal conflict

2010-02-03T21:57:00.008+08:00

Black Hawk co-pilot looking out over over Yala province. November 2009.

Op-ed in the Bangkok Post - Autonomy as a means to ending a brutal conflict on February 2, 2010:

The issue of autonomy has been steadily gaining interest and is now a serious consideration as a means of mitigating the long-running conflict in the southern border provinces.

The fact that a political solution is being openly debated is a positive step because, short of a Carthaginian Peace, there is no military option for solving an armed insurgency which rejects the legitimacy of the state.

Yet autonomy is not a magical solution to the complex problems fuelling the unrest in southern Thailand. Autonomy is subject to a number of complicated problems which could either derail the process or result in an autonomy agreement so watered down that any final agreement is void of any meaningful political powers.

Such complications raise the spectre of autonomy failing to address core grievances of unrest and could further strain relations between Bangkok and the southern border provinces.

While concerns don't totally negate autonomy, issues such as national political conflict, sovereignty, the lack of understanding of the political leanings of the Malay-Muslim community, the role of the international community, a weak judicial system, and the future of the Thai-Buddhist community are all issues which must be addressed should autonomy help bring a lasting peace to Thailand's troubled deep South.

A Unique Issue or a Symptom?

The most pressing issue, and indeed most soul-searching for the Thai nation, is whether the conflict in the southern border provinces is a unique issue specific to the region, or a symptom of a broader political ailment afflicting Thailand. The ethnic and religious cleavages in the Malay-Muslim provinces might be complicating factors, but at the heart of the problem is a broken relationship between those who are ruling and those who are ruled.

While a more extreme symptom in the border provinces, the same problematic relationship between those who are ruling and those who are ruled is reflected in the national political conflict. The struggle, simplified by the colour-coded street protests, might be fuelled by a myriad factors but at the heart of the struggle is the problematic issue of legitimacy for those in power. How this relates to the autonomy debate in the South rests upon the fundamental distinction of how to address the root cause of conflict.

If the apparently disparate conflicts in the southern border provinces and the national political turmoil are indeed symptoms of a broader political ailment afflicting the nation, then a special autonomy agreement fails to address the larger national illness while superficially treating the symptoms in the southern border provinces. This is obviously a complex issue but it is a consideration that must decide between a special autonomy arrangement for the symptoms in the southern border provinces, or the treatment of the political illness afflicting the nation.

A final consideration in this equation is the fact that the national political conflict has drawn Bangkok's focus away from addressing the southern crisis, which means that peace in Bangkok is a likely prerequisite for peace in the deep South.

Autonomy versus Sovereignty

The next issue will be for autonomy to dissociate itself from the sensitive issue of sovereignty. Autonomy is not synonymous with independence. Autonomy is only a political device that allows a distinct ethnic or social group to exercise political control over affairs of special concern to them, while maintaining the unity of the state and allowing the state to maintain political control over issues of common/national interest. But, as just demonstrated, autonomy has a clumsy definition and the distinction between autonomy and independence is often lost or purposely obfuscated by powerful opponents of autonomy.

Commander-in-Chief of the Royal Thai Army, General Anupong Paojinda, recently did this in November 2009, when responding to Puea Thai chairman General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh's suggestion of autonomy in the deep South by saying, "The insurgents want to separate our land and set up an autonomous area." For autonomy to gain more political momentum it is essential that the Thai nation not only understand what autonomy is, but also understand why it is necessary, how it has the potential to address local grievances and, most importantly, how it does not threaten Thailand's sovereignty.

Malay-Muslim Yearnings

Another pressing issue is the lack of understanding of the political leanings of the Malay-Muslim population. Due to the history of separatist struggle and the authority's subsequent heavy-handed reaction to the separatist challenge, there is a distinct lack of political voice emanating out of the southern border provinces.

Essentially, the distinction between legitimate political expression and violent separatism has been lost, which has prevented locals from openly expressing political opinions and airing their grievances for fear of being labelled a separatist.

While the gagging of political voice is a barrier to transforming violent struggle into legitimate non-violent political participation, a lack of political voice also complicates the drive towards autonomy because there are only a limited number of elites which claim to be the voice of the large and diverse community. This could result in an elite-driven autonomy agreement that might serve the few Malay-Muslim leaders who stand to be the primary beneficiaries of increased political devolution, but could fail to serve the majority of southern residents.

The distinct problem is that an elite-driven process could result in an agreement that divides the state's resources and position of political power amongst elites but fails to address local grievances and governance preferences, which would undermine the long-term peace that advocates of autonomy are hoping for.

While an elite-driven process is the more likely scenario, this process should also be accompanied by a detailed public opinion survey designed to reveal the political inclinations of southern citizens, to understand their concerns and grievances, and to infuse those issues into the details of an autonomy agreement.

International Dimension

Another consideration in the autonomy question will be the role of the international community. International assistance in helping Thailand resolve the southern insurgency has been fiercely resisted by both the government and the military. Yet the role of the international community should be re-evaluated.

The first stage in re-evaluating the role of the international community is to understand that a large intervention is not being called for. The type of international assistance that is more likely would be technical and academic, and designed to use shared experiences with utilising autonomy arrangements to address ethno-religious conflicts while maintaining a state's unity.

Countries like Canada, Spain and the United Kingdom have similar experiences with creating autonomy-based solutions to separatist challenges and could provide considerable technical insight into process and design issues which would directly correlate with the durability and success of an autonomy agreement. Additionally, such countries also share the experience of being constitutional monarchies and understand how these institutions need not be negatively reflected upon.

Finally, the international community can provide assistance as a non-partisan negotiation facilitator that can provide considerable value in helping get stakeholders to the table, and build an equitable accommodation designed to address the diverse communities and address the multifaceted grievances fuelling unrest.

Judicial Challenges

Thailand's judicial system will be a problematic area for the future of an autonomy agreement. While Thailand has a well-established judicial system, there are concerns that partisanship in the judiciary could complicate a future agreement. Autonomy agreements are complex and require frequent negotiation between the centre and the autonomous zone. These negotiations can largely be adjudicated through the legal system should all parties have faith in the impartiality of the courts. Yet, since the resurgence of violence in 2004, there has not been a single prosecution of security forces for human rights abuses despite numerous allegations.

This lack of prosecution has been raised by some in the border provinces as an example of judicial inequality. The problem that this raises for the prospect of a future autonomy agreement is that the court's adjudication process is not understood by some stakeholders as a non-partisan venue for negotiating the adjustments needed between the centre and the autonomous zone. This raises the spectre of extra-judicial negotiations taking place in either non-transparent elite negotiations or through a return to violence.

Those designing an agreement need to be cognisant of the challenges posed by the country's democratic and legal systems. Importantly, the details of autonomy would need to be clear, have considerable support of the wide range of stakeholders, and would need to include guidelines for resolving conflicts and providing adjustments between Bangkok and the autonomous zone.

Thai-Buddhist Support

The issue of Thai-Buddhist citizens in the southern border provinces needs specific care in an autonomy agreement. This will not be easy but every effort must be made to accommodate their interests, ensure their democratic rights, and specifically ensure their safety. Tensions along ethno-religious lines have already resulted in a migration of Thai-Buddhists out of the three southern border provinces of Narathiwat, Pattani and Yala and, in some instances, Thai-Buddhists have been violently driven out in what some experts claim is ethnic cleansing.

While human rights and safety issues are paramount, from the perspective of autonomy and the hope of establishing peace, the concerns of Thai-Buddhists need to be answered and included in the process of establishing peace through autonomy.

Ultimately, while autonomy is a complex process subject to a number of major pitfalls, the fact that autonomy is gaining increased interest is a positive step in the search for a much-needed political solution to the southern insurgency.

While it will be a major challenge for autonomy to gain the required support from national stakeholders, the larger challenge will be to construct a durable autonomy agreement that can strike a balance between the state and the complicated grievances fuelling unrest in the southern border provinces. This is not an impossible task, but it will require parties to be cognisant of the challenges, willing to compromise, and prepared to construct a highly detailed agreement.

The Daily Dose

2010-01-17T21:00:00.005+08:00

From Voice TV comes an English language news show called the Daily Dose. I particularly like the show's lead story on an Asia Times story Reds ready to rumble in Thailand which they describe as:

"Reds ready to rumble in Thailand By Nelson Rand and Chandler Vandergrift in Atimes.com had some keen insights into the army's (sic).

These are several key phrases from the article which is worth a read.The military effectively suppressed April's UDD protest, but questions are emerging about possible cracks in the chain of command. While Thailand's military has long been factionalized along graduating class lines, it is now also believed to be divided among competing units, according to experts."

Negotiating with the Reds

2010-01-09T23:55:00.003+08:00

*ALL PHOTOS COPYRIGHT*
UDD leader Kwanchai Poipana at FM 97.50 radio station in Udon Thani. Note the handgun on the table.

From the HD Centre comes an op-ed printed in the Malaysian Insider:

"Virtually unseen and certainly unexpected, a new threat is emerging in Asia - and it is not growing on the back of extremist religious dogma. Rather, the newest non-state armed groups battling governments in the name of justice and freedom draw on what was thought to be a dead ideology: Marxism

....

There is also a strong left-wing current humming through other popular opposition groups such as the Red Shirt movement in Thailand [National United Front of Democracy Against Dictatorship]. This movement may be built around support for ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, but it is led and inspired by intellectuals who cut their ideological teeth in the Thai Communist Party of the 1970s.

The good news is that while many governments baulk at engaging with Islamic extremist groups considered to be beyond the pale because of their ideological justification of violent acts that target innocent civilians, many of these left-wing groups have specific political demands that often stem from obvious social and economic deprivations or injustices. They resemble old-fashioned liberation movements or peasant uprisings. This suggests dialogue and negotiation can be effective tools for ending violence.

The bad news is that most governments, and some of the left-wing movements, remain stubbornly opposed to dialogue."

While Michael Vatikiotis' op-ed is a couple of weeks old it seems particularly apt to bring the topic of negotiations up while the tensions are rising for the Red's rally in Khao Yai Thiang.

There was talk of negotiations in the last few weeks but, if there were indeed efforts to arrange talks, these seem to have failed as neither side seemed to back away from demands.

As reported in the BKK Post, Thaksin's demands were:

"restoration of the 1997 constitution; a general election; a fair trial on all the cases against him, both those already judged and those pending; and, of course, the return of his legally acquired assets currently frozen by the government."

And the establishment responded:

"Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has made clear his government is ready to talk with Thaksin provided that the first returns to face his two-year jail term"

While Vatikiotis urged negotiate with the Reds on issues of "social and economic deprivations or injustices" it seems negotiations failed over a two-year jail sentence.

The topics of negotiation are unfortunate because the issues fueling social conflict are not exactly reflected in the topics being negotiated.

Thaksin's assets and jail sentence are somewhat irrelevant in context of the broader issue of a partisan judiciary.

And while an election and the 1997 constitution are significant, the bigger issue of legitimacy and the relationship between those who rule and those being ruled is being fought largely outside of the democratic arena. An election and a trusted constitution are essential, but extra-democratic means of exercising power is the issue which needs to be negotiated.

The failure of an elite-level negotiation is also unfortunate as tensions seem to be at the boiling point as reported by* the Asia Times in a story titled Reds ready to rumble in Thailand:

"While UDD leaders insist their campaign will be peaceful, they also indicate that their protest movement is near a breaking point over what they perceive as a series of non-democratic power grabs and partisan judicial decisions. "We fight through peaceful means," explained pro-UDD radio broadcaster Kwanchai, while suggestively placing a pistol on a nearby table. "But if the government uses force, we will fight back.""

* Note that this last quote tells the story of photo above meaning I am not exactly unbiased for using the Asia Times article.

Warring Colours

2009-12-18T11:38:00.004+08:00

Photo of the Day: Constitution Day with the Reds

2009-12-10T23:26:00.012+08:00

The Reds rallying at Democracy Monument on Constitution Day.

The Bangkok Post estimated a suspiciously low number of 5000 protesters while Red leaders were claiming 20,000.

If I had to guess, I would say at least 15,000 if not the full 20,000.

What is, unfortunately, not surprising is that the English language Thai media completely neglected to report on what was the rational for the protest.

While it is easier to draw the palace and pretend it is an affront to the King's over-compensating birthday celebrations that is not the case.

It is Constitution Day, and considering paramount issue of the military tearing up the 1997 constitution, there is a serious reason to protest on this day.

But, as the largely partisan Thai press is prone to do, they neglect reporting on the issue at hand and churn out either useless or biased stories that fail to inform readers what the issues at hand are and what BOTH sides are saying. God forbid they let the reader decide who is right are wrong.

Chai Yo!

Photo of the Day: Orwellian Thailand

2009-12-04T23:29:00.005+08:00

*All Images Copyright* (this means that newspapers like the Seoul Times should not be stealing my photos!)

Photos from this evening's national anthem ceremony at the National Stadium.

The whole ceremony was Orwellian in the sense that it felt like "an attitude and a policy of control by propaganda, surveillance, misinformation, denial of truth, and manipulation of the past...[which is] practiced by modern repressive governments." (thanks wiki!)

Simple lies by Anupong

2009-11-23T01:30:00.008+08:00

View of Narathiwat from a Black Hawk helicopter. November 12, 2009.

(This post was originally called 'fisking Anupong' until it was brought to my attention that there is another definition for fisking...who knew?!)

I personally don’t like unpacking questionable statements and articles in the news because it is time consuming.

Yet sometimes, an article is so littered with politician’s blatant lies and journalistic incompetence that it simply begs to be deconstructed.

The Bangkok Post’s recent article Army takes a hard line with rebels is a case in point:

PATTANI : The army has shot down a call to negotiate with insurgents to end conflicts in the restive South.

Army chief Anupong Paojinda said no talks would be held with separatist groups during his tenure, which ends in September next year. "We won't negotiate with them. But we will take legal action against them," he told the Bangkok Post.

NS: Anupong is simply lying, negotiations have been an ongoing, but largely a secretive process, since Surayud was installed as Prime Minister.

"They have to be brought to trial for having murdered innocent people," said Gen Anupong, who accompanied Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban on a trip to inspect government development projects in Pattani and Narathiwat last week.

NS: In this context, the Royal Thai Army also needs to be “brought to trial for having murdered innocent people” considering the long list of victims in the Tak Bai incident or prominent cases like Iman Yapa.

Gen Anupong was reacting to calls by Puea Thai chairman Gen Chavalit Yongchaiyudh to negotiate with separatist groups to end the violence.

Gen Chavalit has also proposed an amnesty for militants in the three Muslim-dominated provinces.

Since violence resurfaced in the region six years ago, it has claimed almost 4,000 lives.

The Internal Security Operations Command believes 8,000-10,000 insurgents are active in the deep South. The insurgents took shelter in more than 200 villages in the so-called red zone and used pondok schools as a base to carry out attacks against civilians and state officials, it said.

"The insurgents want to separate our land and set up an autonomous area," the army chief said.

NS: This is a serious problem on two levels. If it is a translation problem then it is simply shoddy reporting by the Bangkok Post. But if it is what Anupong said, it is still shoddy reporting because he is clearly obfuscating issues and a professional journalist should have questioned this or at least qualified it by stating in the next sentence that Anupong was either confused or being purposely deceptive.

As for Anupong, and taking that he actually meant what he said, he is simply being a shifty liar. Separatism and autonomy are very different issues. Separatism would result in an independent state while an autonomous area would not violent the ‘one and unitary’ condition of the constitution, would not divide the nation (แบ่งชาติ), and would simply devolve local governance powers and decision making to the border provinces….much like Bangkok enjoys.

They carried out attacks to draw international attention to their "plight".

But the army leader said that the southern violence was a domestic issue that could be solved by the government alone.

NS: International attention is not exactly a major factor in southern militants’ tactics, but it is a major fear of Thai elites who are ever fearful that their prolonged incompetence in addressing the southern conflict will ultimately draw in the international community. But, this quote does allow Anupong to repeat the standard line that ‘conflict is a domestic issue’ and everyone should simply forget about it.

No other countries, including fellow members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, had offered themselves as brokers in talks between the government and the separatist groups.

NS: It is common knowledge that Malaysia (while not an honest broker as they are a stakeholder in the conflict) and Indonesia have offered to broker talks.

Prime Minister Najib Razak of Malaysia plans to tour the three southernmost provinces with Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva early next month. The trip is intended as a show of Malaysian support for Thailand's efforts to tackle the violence.

NS: WTF?! Is this article an opinion piece from the self-deluded Nation or Manager? Malaysia might support the military’s declarations that they will not violent human rights but the Malaysian PM is certainly accountable to his own constituents who are critical of the Thai military’s heavy handed tactics. In addition, Razak floated the idea of autonomy which flip-flopper Abhisit initially supported but has since backtracked on. But really, the key point of the trip by Razak will be to show his constituents that he is pressuring Thailand to treat the Malay-Muslim minority in the Deep South with some dignity and respect for their rights and CERTAINLY NOT as a show of support.

Gen Anupong said no Asean members would interfere in the southern issue. NS: Yes, we got the message already, an internal issue. The army had no plan to withdraw troops from the area. There are 20,000 soldiers, 18,000 police and 40,000 defence volunteers providing security for two million people in the deep South.

NS: This is more complicated given the number of irregular troops.

As i understand it, it is higher and goes like this:

In addition to the 20,000 soldiers and 18,000 police there are 50, 000 village defence volunteers (ชรบ), 10,000 rangers (ทหานพราน), 20,000 defense corps (อรบ) and 6,000 Or Sor (อส which are well armed troops who are full time paid soldiers under command of the Ministry of Interior and the only ‘volunteer’ part of their work is that they are not conscripted). This total of armed state-sanctioned forces is at about 124,000 depending on a couple of variations. This rough works out to 1 state-armed person per 20 residents in the Deep South.

"We will not abandon people to live alone. Without us, how could they survive?" Gen Anupong said.

NS: Who is he abandoning and who would not survive? Clearly it is not the 80% Malay-Muslim population that he is talking about but the 20% Thai-Buddhist population and these kind of black and white comments are simply pandering to the nation by employing empty but emotional nationalist rhetoric.

He had told border officials to keep a close watch on people with dual Thai-Malaysian nationality as he believed many were involved in attacks in the deep South.

Security experts believe militants with dual nationality carry out attacks there, then flee to neighbouring Malaysia to avoid being caught.

NS: Case in point of the nonsense about Malaysian PM going to show ‘support for Thailand's efforts’. If Razak was supportive of Thai efforts then he would cooperate at the border on security issues and take action against suspected militants retreating into Malaysia.

The question of how to tackle assailants with dual Thai-Malaysian nationality will be tabled for talks between the two leaders when Mr Najib is visiting here, officials say.

Gen Anupong also criticised "the Pattani model" pushed by Gen Chavalit as a solution to the violence.

Gen Chavalit has proposed a form of elected self-government for the region, similar to the way Bangkok is run.

He says the government is deliberately misinterpreting his call as advocacy for an independent Pattani state, which he opposes.

NS: Yes, certainly. As Anupong did above and I mentioned here, it will be easy for the opposition to misrepresent what autonomy is.

He was not proposing separatism, just self-government. Gen Anupong, however, said the details were still unclear and had led to misunderstanding among southern residents.

" I don't understand exactly what Gen Chavalit is advocating. Further discussions are needed. I believe he has a hidden agenda," he said.

NS: More obfuscating the issues and simple lies by Anupong. ‘A hidden agenda’? Obviously it is a clear agenda to flummox Abhisit’s embattled and ineffective government. But what might be ‘hidden’ is potential long term solution to the intractable southern insurgency.

What do Malay-Muslims really want?

2009-11-20T01:57:00.001+08:00

* All images copyright *

Ramadan and the Central Mosque in Pattani City. August 26, 2009

The question of what Malay-Muslims really want is a serious blind spot in the southern insurgency.

Obviously, it would seem a critical issue to understand not only the grievances fueling the insurgency but to understand the political desires of the nearly two million Malay-Muslim citizens in the southern border provinces.

This is also of critical importance as the issue of autonomy has been a hotly contested political issue lately.

Yet no one can say, with any authority, what the residents there want.

This is in part because the Thai state fails to differentiate between the legitimate political expressions of grievance and separatism. For Thai authorities, Malay-Muslims expressing dissatisfaction with the government is the same as expressing support for separatism.

Because we dont really know that Malay-Muslims want, journalists, academics, and myself, tend to simplify this blind spot and cluster all Malay-Muslims into a homogeneous group.

This is obviously not accurate but serves as journalistic shorthand for a complex issue without easy answers.

As Jason Johnson writes in the Asia Times Online, this has:

"led to widespread misconceptions about the spiraling conflict, including that nearly all of the minority group harbor Patani Malay Muslim nationalist sentiment and resentment towards the Thai state".

In fact, Jason's article makes a number of interesting comments and particularly:

"As de facto spokespeople for the Patani Malay Muslim nation [Malay Muslim intellectuals], they tend to overstate the nationalist cares and concerns of ordinary Malay Muslims, frequently speaking about group pride in the ancient Kingdom of Patani, the Malay Muslims unique way of life, and the need for the Thai government to give greater recognition to this identity by, for instance, allowing some form of autonomy."

With the debate over autonomy brewing, it would be nice to know if a possible autonomy agreement would be serving the political aspirations of a majority of residents or whether it will be an elite driven process granted by Bangkok and solely serving the needs of a few Malay-Muslim elites and by separatists who would be major beneficiaries of increased political power.

Ultranationalist PAD

2009-11-17T18:51:00.014+08:00

* All images copyright *
PAD supporters in Sanam Luang on Sunday November 15, 2009.

I have been going to the street protests in Bangkok for about four years now and think I am used to the acerbic nationalism used to stoke the crowds.

Both Yellow (PAD) and Red (UDD) are guilty of this.

Yet PAD's rally on Sunday in Sanam Luang ratcheted up the nationalist nonsense into nothing short of a rallying cry for war.

War with both Cambodia and a civil war within Thailand.

Over at Prachatai they have a summery of the some of the comments on stage:

"Prasert Lertyaso called for the beheading of Hun Sen, General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, and Thaksin Shinawatra, alluding to an old Thai saying of shedding blood to wash royal feet. He banished Thaksin’s supporters to Phnom Penh and Dubai."

"Saken Sutthiwong said that Cambodia was afraid that [Thai] F16 fighter jets would miss their targets and bomb Angkor Wat and Prear Vihear instead, because they earn their living from those ‘old stones’."
"Then some students came up to condemn Hun Sen and Thaksin, the traitor. They vowed to fight to the death to protect the Nation, Religion and King. "

"...Gen Preecha Iamsuphan, who had led yellow shirts in raucous protests near the Prear Vihear site in September, spoke to the crowd that it was time to get rid of traitors, as they all had appeared before their eyes. ‘We have to quickly finish them off for the sake of our beloved King and ancestors, so that Thais stop quarrelling with one another because of these scoundrels.’"

"Sondhi Limthongkul said the nation was important because it was composed of religion and the King. When people have faith in religion, religion is strengthened and so is the monarchy. Religion and the King will never be separable."

While such rhetoric sounds bad, some of the songs they sang might have been worse:

"Two royally-penned songs, ‘The Highest Dream’ and ‘Scum of the Earth’, were played"

Hobby, commenting at Prachatai, notes that New Mandala has an interesting write up on the song 'Scum of the Earth'.

From Ben Anderson writing about the slaughter of students at Thammasat University in 1976:

"Radio stations controlled by rightists, and especially the extremist Armored Division Radio, commissioned and played incessantly violent songs such as “Nak Phaendin” (Heavy on the Earth) and “Rok Phaendin” (Scum of the Earth)."

And Thongchai Winichakul writing about the same tragic events:

"Meanwhile military propaganda had dehumanized the radical students, labeling them ‘scum of the earth’ (nak phaendin), the enemy of the “Nation, Religion and the Monarchy”"

This ultra-nationalist vitriol is dangerous on its own but it comes just before the Red Shirt announcement that they will "will make the war against the government" and plan to bring up to a million supporters on the streets during Nov 29 to Dec 3.

While it is doubtful that they will actually get a million supporters (although Nick N did give a rather high estimate of 50,000 to 60,000 at their Saturday Khao Yai gathering which he also blogged about here) it is still a highly combustible scenario.

With PAD calling for blood and the Reds about to pour into Bangkok, Thailand's national political conflict is likely to grow more and more violent over the next few weeks.

Photo of the Day: General Pichet Wisaijorn

2009-11-13T02:33:00.007+08:00

* All images copyright *

In a Blackhawk helicopter with LT General Pichet Wisaijorn, ISOC Area 4 Commander, over Narathiwat province. November 12, 2009.

Also, the following FCCT announcement is particularly relevant:

Strategies for Combating the Southern Insurgency

An Evening with Lt Gen Pichet Wisaijorn, 4th Army Regional Commander

8pm Weds, November 18th, 2009

(Please see pricing and reservation procedure below)

The seemingly intractable insurgency in the Thailand's southernmost provinces of Yala, Pattani, and Narathiwat is in its sixth year with a death toll of more than 3,500. Separatist violence against civilians, security forces and government officials continues to make the news on a daily basis.

As chief of the Royal Thai Army in the deep South for the past one year, Lt Gen Pichet Wisaijorn commands respect for his dedication to stop the violence once and for all. He focuses not only on military methods but also on development issues, including agricultural and environmental strategies, to improve for Southern residents who are among the country's poorest.

Lt Gen Pichet started his military career in Isaan and maintains a special position in the Queen's Guards [Special Force Military for Queen Sirikit]. He also commanded Thai troops in East Timor in 2000.

Please join us for what will no be fascinating insights into the country's counter insurgency tactics and a discussion of the challenges ahead for Thai government in the restive South.

Autonomy!

2009-10-30T17:00:00.001+08:00

*ALL PHOTOS COPYRIGHT*

Singing on the beach in Pattani province. August 2009.

There has been a growing interest in granting some form of autonomy to the Deep South as a means of mitigating unrest in the region.

Since the rise of violence in 2003, the Thai state under has failed, often miserably, in its counterinsurgency efforts.

Normally, heavy handed tactics by security forces backed up by inappropriate and even warmongering rhetoric by successive Prime Ministers has done nothing but add fuel to the southern fire.

Yet there has been growing discourse in Thai academic and political circles that has admitted the state's persistent failures and has understood that greater political participation through the devolution of state powers is needed to quell the violence.

While Thai discourse has favored terms like decentralization or administrative reform what is really being talked about is a form of autonomy.

This is, of course, not separatism but a means of granting locals in the Deep South more political participation so that they have basic decision making control over affairs such as education, religious practice, and development.

A brief summary of the rise of Thai political discourse on autonomy might have started as early as 2005 when the National Reconciliation Commission (NRC) was formulating their recommendations for fostering peace in the Deep South. Insiders speculate that autonomy was the core recommendation that former Prime Minister and NRC Chairman Anand Panyarachun was planning to suggest. But, a 'powerful stakeholder' commanded that autonomy not be recommended and it was dropped.

In February 2008 Chalerm Yubamrung, then serving as Interior Minister, launched a trial balloon suggesting that public hearings on the issue of Southern autonomy be conducted. While immediately slapped down by Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej, Chalerm claimed to have support from the governors of the southern provinces of Narathiwat, Pattani, Satun, Yala, and Songkhla in addition to the Southern Border Provinces Administration Centre (SBPAC) director Pranai Suwannarat

By June 2009, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, while speaking on his weekly television program, had already floated the idea of turning Pattani, Narathiwat, and Yala into a “special administrative zone” while still being in line with the one and unitary state precondition established in the constitution.

And now, in response to Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak's suggestion that Thailand grant some form of autonomy to the Deep South, the Straits Times and Channel News Asia are reporting that Abhisit has considerably raised the bar:

"Thailand is supporting this approach but it's not an independent region. It does not contradict the constitution, but instead allows more public participation in the form of a local assembly," he told reporters."

Finally, and just after I called Abhisit's performance a failure, I must give him some praise.

This is just a small step in a long and evolving process of course, but it is an important and significant step towards a long term resolution to the conflict.

What will happen next will likely be a spirited attack by right wing nationalists.

If conservatives like Privy Council president Prem Tinsulanonda could not tolerate the idea of Pattani-Malayu (the dialect spoke by about two million Thai citizens in the Deep South) being a working language in the Deep South then he, and his intolerant brethren, will likely mount a fierce rebuke to autonomy.

The Royal Thai Army, which runs the Deep South like a fiefdom and basks in extraordinary state spending, will likely also strike back at Abhisit. This is serious. Abhisit's government is beholden to the military and, should they withdraw their backing, the government is on shaky ground.

And the ultra-nationalist lunatics that comprise the anti-democratic People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) will be furious. Their violent antics at Phrea Vihear could be replayed over any notion of special autonomy being granted in the Deep South.

Such a backlash could cause the government to considerably water down the details of autonomy.

And this is the real danger.

Autonomy as a means of mitigating conflict has the potential to address the core grievances in the Deep South that fuel unrest.

But a watered down autonomy agreement void of any meaningful devolution of powers reaffirms the fears and mistrust that many residents of the Deep South have in the Thai state.

It would also bolster the hawkish nationalists who would accuse the Deep South of not being cooperative and would lead to further calls for a military solution to the crisis.

And, as Abhisit and Panitan Wattanayakorn have been mulling over a Sri Lankan-type solution, it is not unfathomable to envision a different and very dangerous direction that the conflict could go if autonomy is not managed properly.

Abhisit's failing state

2009-10-19T21:13:00.014+08:00

Village defense volunteers (Chor Ro Bo) demonstrating their skills at a Buddhist temple in Maigaan (ไม้แก่น) district of Pattani province. August 2009.

In June 2009, at a seminar hosted by the King Prajadhipok’s Institute called “Politics Outweighs the Military: A Solution to Sustainable Peace in Southern Thailand”, Prime Minister Abhisit talked about bringing justice to the Deep South.

He said that the perpetrators of the June 2009 mosque shooting in Narathiwat, “no matter who they are”, would be brought to justice and that this issue is a key point from which to judge the performance of his government.

I would like to now pass judgment on the performance of his government: failed.

Failed misserably might be more accurate.

In regards to the mosque shooting, a warrant was issued a few months ago for a Thai-Buddhist township defense volunteer (Or Ror Bor) named Suthirak Khongsuwan, yet the whole case seems, like every other legal case in the Deep South, to have disappeared without resolution and certainly without justice.

Obviously, Abhisit's bold rhetoric is fundamentally disconnected with the fact that his weak government is beholden to the military.

Worse, the fact that Thai-Buddhist militias, such as the one Suthirak Khongsuwan belonged to, are armed under patronage of the Kingdom's highest institution which ensures that Abhisit's rhetoric is simply rhetoric.

The Nation is reporting today that the Patani United Liberation Organization (PULO) is not happy about the failure to see justice in the Deep South:

"Four Prime ministers passed by in just two years and all have failed to deliver justice and really sustainable development as hoped by the Malay Muslims, who are naturally anxious to manage their own affairs," it said.

Implicit in the PULO statement is that the Thai state's failure to deliver justice is a rational for autonomy or separatism.

They may have a point.

Not a single official has been prosecuted for any human-rights violations or killings since the surge of fighting began in 2004. Even the Tak Bai case in which state security forces killed 86 protesters – 76 from mistreatment after being taken into custody – were ‘acting in accordance’ of the law as judged by a Songkhla provincial court.

More worrisome, is that Abhisit's failure is part of a habitual failing of the Thai state that is akin to the symptoms of a failed state.

What exactly is a failed state?

From the Failed States Index: A state that is failing has several attributes. One of the most common is the loss of physical control of its territory or a monopoly on the legitimate use of force. Other attributes of state failure include the erosion of legitimate authority to make collective decisions, an inability to provide reasonable public services, and the inability to interact with other states as a full member of the international community. The 12 indicators cover a wide range of state failure risk elements such as extensive corruption and criminal behavior, inability to collect taxes or otherwise draw on citizen support, large-scale involuntary dislocation of the population, sharp economic decline, group-based inequality, institutionalized persecution or discrimination...

From the perspective of the Deep South, the Thai state is clearly bordering on failed state territory.

When a failed state can not provide justice, politically motivated armed groups (separatists) will try to take over the functions of a state as a means of garnering legitimacy in the eyes of locals.

This is already happening.

As reported in Matichon today (sorry, cant find the story on their website but saw a copy of it early), separatists have released their own 'wanted' poster complete with photos and names of the five Thai-Buddhist suspects from the mosque shooting incident. While it does look like a wanted poster for criminals, theirs is titled 'จับตาย' which translates as 'wanted dead'.

Such vigilante actions are a symptom of the Thai state's inability to provide justice.

While I do still appreciate Abhisit's flowery promises of justice, his government has clearly failed to deliver.

Yet the real problem is not simply the current government's failure to provide justice, its the fact that its the sixth year in which the Thai state has failed to provide justice for citizens of the Deep South.

From a southern perspective, the perpetual lack of justice suggests that the Thai state is a failed state in the Deep South.

And that, of course, supports PULO's argument for autonomy or even independence.

Rumors, rumors, rumors

2009-10-15T11:53:00.012+08:00

*ALL PHOTOS COPYRIGHT*

Well-wishers at Siriraj Hospital. September 25, 2009.

While local Thai papers are towing the official line that all is well with King Bhumibol Adulyadej, there have been serious rumors since he was admitted to hospital on September 19th.

Some rumors told directly to me have suggesting it is time to stock up on black clothing, others are more opaque.

From the Nation:
"There was a panic in early trading due to rumours, but the market rebounded," said Therdsak Taweethiratham of AsiaPlus Securities. "In recent weeks the stock market has been rising. Now investors are profit-taking."

The Bangkok Post:
"Rumours circulated throughout Wednesday that his condition [King Bhumibol] had deteriorated, prompting a 2.04 percent drop in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).

The blogs are a little more creative.

New Mandala's cleaver use of a single quote:
"Less than forty-eight hours before he died the First Queen had reported that “His Majesty has improved in all respects.” - Extracted from Vella and Vella 1978. Chaiyo! King Vajiravudh and the development of Thai Nationalism, p1.

Thailand Crisis with a distinctive tone which always makes for good reading:
"There is sense of deja vu : Sovietology… When during the Cold War people were spending huge amount of energy and time to try to decipher what was going on at the Kremlin…"

And:

"It’s a shame to serve such bullshit to the public. Shame on those people. Shame on Nation to write such non sense. The thai people have the right to know the truth."

Political Prisoners Thailand, while verging into conspiracy territory, comes up with something much more worrisome about the number of troops scheduled to descend upon the streets. (Also, they are the right on track to critically question the 2,000 "civilian volunteers" which are part of the security force):

"That’s a total of 36,000 security personnel mobilized. Even leaving aside the questions of human rights and intimidation, this is clearly way, way more than would be reasonable for controlling a rally that the government estimates will be “about 10,000 people.”"

"Suthep stated that “Attention will be given specially to Government House, parliament and Chitrlada Palace.”"

"PPT has no answers that we haven’t given before.However, this kind of mobilization is suspiciously large. If we were being really cynical and conspiratorial, we’d be tempted to link to an earlier post."

And finally, Bloomberg has a good story which captures how the King's health is making the market jittery:
"Speculation that the King’s health had deteriorated helped spark the biggest drop in the benchmark stock index in two months yesterday and the biggest decline since June in the baht."

A theme that emerges in this is that the Palace is seriously mismanaging their communication with the people leaving unanswered questions and fears to morph into dark rumors.

But an even bigger theme is that the whole succession, the embargo on honest reporting on the monarchy, fears of lese majeste, the unpopularity of the crown prince, republican sentiments, and all the other Yellow Elephant in the Room issues which the country is forced to try to ignore have left the nation unprepared for the inevitable outcome of all this.

The market is jittery because the nation is jittery.

Simply put, Thailand is not prepared for what will be the most profound cultural and political upheaval this country has seen in decades, some suggest the biggest upheaval ever, and all because we simply can not openly talk about the monarchy.

Long live lese majeste.

Moments of nationalist stupidity

2009-09-20T23:14:00.003+08:00

* All images copyright *
Red shirts at Government House February 24th 2009.

From the Bangkok Post titled Govt launches Thai Unity project:

"The government has organised activities to promote unity and patriotism among Thai people, and one of them is to sing the national anthem together," Mr Abhisit said.

I was going to write a post questioning what depths of nationalist stupidity that would envision that the promotion of an increasingly Orwellian nationalism would actually solve Thailand's political turmoil.

Thankfully, Political Prisoners in Thailand has already blogged on this:

"PPT doesn’t think that Abhisit is as naive and as stupid as this all sounds. Rather, we feel that the emphasis on right-wing, conservative and nationalist strategies of the dark past is a reflection of the views of his strongest backers. His position as prime minister, and within the Democrat Party, is insecure. Hence, Abhisit has fallen back on the support of important and highly conservative and royalist backers within the party and at higher levels and they urge these measures that they believe have been successful in the past."

It is hard to fathom how the use of nationalism or even ISOC's bizarrely dumb "moso" campaign or the comically futile peace activist campaign to 'Stop Hurting the Country' are all raised as solutions to the country's political impasse.

When something is broken, it is better to address the problem rather than to preach about 'loving the nation', practicing moderation, or the waste-of-a-white-shirt campaign to 'stop hurting the country".

While 'moso' and the peace activists are simply wasting their own time and performing something akin to victimless crime, howling for increased nationalism is certainly more worrying.

PAD's violent antics at Preah Vihear are a prime example of the danger of nationalism.

Nationalism simply sharpens distinctions between opposing groups into a justification for violence.

As the government and its right-wing conservative backers sharpen their version of nationalism to exclude those who oppose them, the justification for violence moves ever closer.

So, at 8am and 6pm, the following blood thirsty lyrics in the national anthem will by passionately sung:

Thailand is the unity of Thai blood and body,
The whole country belongs to the Thai people,
Maintaining thus far for the Thai,
All Thais intend to unite together,
Thais love peace, but do not fear to fight,
They will never let anyone threaten their independence,
They will sacrifice every drop of their blood to contribute to the nation,
Will serve their country with pride and prestige-full of victory.
Chai Yo (Cheers)

The reds in Royal Plaza

2009-09-20T00:58:00.012+08:00

The reds in Royal Plaza. September 19th.

Thai Public Split Over Charter Amendment

2009-09-14T12:06:00.001+08:00

Media Advisory
For 16 September 2009

ASIA FOUNDATION TO RELEASE SURVEY: THAI PUBLIC SPLIT OVER CHARTER AMENDMENT

Bangkok, Thailand – Do Thai voters believe a charter amendment would lead to national reconciliation? How much say should the public have over the amendment process? To ensure that opinions from Thai citizens are represented during this time of political turmoil, The Asia Foundation will release the results of its nationwide survey conducted in 26 provinces that gauge the national mood toward amending the constitution, election reform, interest in politics, and more.

The Asia Foundation’s latest survey, Constitutional Reform and Democracy in Thailand: A National Survey of the Thai Electorate, reveals Thai public opinions on issues relevant to the current debate on constitutional reform. Conducted through face-to-face interviews with 1,500 respondents nationwide, the timely survey allows lawmakers, politicians, academics and the media to assess the process of democratization and measure Thai voters’ knowledge of and attitudes toward democracy and the nation’s key institutions.

The survey results will also shed light on key trends and changing attitudes of Thai voters, providing compelling insights into controversial issues such as Article 237 of the 2007 Constitution, electoral reforms, as well as political amnesty and impunity.

Survey results will be unveiled at a press conference. The discussion will be conducted in Thai and English. Cameras are welcome. The discussion will be on the record.

WHEN: 9.30 a.m. – 12.00 p.m. Wednesday, September 16, 2009

WHO: Presentation of key findings of survey by Mr. Tim Meisburger,
Director of Elections and Political Processes Program, The Asia Foundatio

Guest Speakers: Associate Professor Surichai Wun’Gaeo
Director of Social Research Institute, Chulalongkorn University

Dr. Thawilwadee Bureekul
Director of Research & Development Office, King Prajadhipok’s Institute

WHERE: Saladang Room (2nd Floor)Dusit Thani Hotel Bangkok
946 Rama IV Road, Bangkok 10500

About The Asia Foundation
The Asia Foundation is a non-profit, non-governmental organization committed to the development of a peaceful, prosperous, just, and open Asia-Pacific region. The Foundation has maintained a resident office in Thailand since 1954. For more information, please visit www.asiafoundation.org.

Thaksin on state media - Update

2009-09-09T23:48:00.010+08:00

*All PHOTOS COPYRIGHT*

Jom, reporting from Maigan district of Pattani in August 2009.

The following is the English language statement from Jom Petpradab who conducted the controversial interview with former Prime Minister Thaksin on his radio program on Sunday. I am trying to find a link to the audio file now.

For back ground, see my previous post on this topic.

*Full disclosure: I helped Jom write this English language statement.

Statement
From: Jom Petpradab
Regarding: Thai media, freedom of speech, and freedom to information are under threat in Thailand by a government that is robbing the people of their rights and freedoms.

My name is Jom Petpradab and I have been a working journalist in Thailand for more than 20 years in newspaper, radio, and television media. On Sunday morning, September 6th, 2009 while I was hosting my radio program, “Exclusive with Jom Petpradab”, I received a live call from former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra who was in Dubai. He was interested in giving me an interview because the month previous I had contacted his personal lawyer requesting an interview. Before the interview started, I informed my audience that Thaksin was on the phone, that I was conducting the interview as an unbiased journalist. I reminded the audience that I am not a supporter of the former Prime Minister, was not interested in being used as an outlet for propaganda, and simply wanted my audience to be able to hear his opinion on the many accusations revolving around him. Ultimately, my motivation is to help my audience and the Thai nation better understand the political crisis that our country is embroiled in. Essentially, I was doing my job as a journalist.

My interview with Thaksin lasted for 40 minutes and I conducted it ethically, without favoritism or prejudice, and exercised proper journalistic integrity. For example, I asked him why he does not resign from politics to help ease the political crisis, whether he is loyal or wants to harm the monarchy, why he doesn’t come back to Thailand to accept the criminal convictions against him, whether he smuggled funds from the country, and how he was funding his business and political interests while abroad. The interview, in Thai, can be found at the Prachatai website here .

A key question asked, and indeed a fundamental question for our country, is how we can negotiate our current political crisis and reconcile the conflict. While I am a journalist and have conducted my interview with proper journalistic ethics, I am still a citizen and hope that we can find a solution to political conflict without bloodshed. Thaksin, love him or hate him, is at the center of this crisis. He is not only a legitimate news maker but he is a central figure to the crisis and therefore his opinion on how to negotiate this conflict is essential. To this end, I asked Thaksin “The whole country, even red and yellow, wants peace, why don’t you call the Prime Minister or talk to the government to find a way to reconcile this conflict?”

While I was conducting my interview with Thaksin, Sathit Wongnongpoey a Minister attached to the Prime Minister’s Office, called the president of MCOT radio to demand to know why he would allow Thaksin on a government radio station. He claimed Thaksin should not be allowed on government radio because his is a fugitive, has tried to attack the Privy Council, and has challenged the authority of the judicial system. He ordered the MCOT president to report to him within 24 hours to explain why MCOT was not following government policy for media not to incite political unrest. Reporters at MCOT are now in fear of doing their jobs and feel that they must present favorable, unquestioning coverage of the government or face punishment.

While press freedom, including government controlled media, is protected by Article 46 of the Thai constitution it is clear that the Thai media is unable to exercise its constitutionally guaranteed rights. In short, Thai media is not free and is subject to considerable governmental control. This is not simply a problem under the Premiership of Abhisit, but is part of a long history of restrictions on media freedom in Thailand. While Thaksin was Prime Minister he tried to intimidate the press though costly lawsuits or through direct ownership of media outlets. I had trouble with him while trying to interview his political opponents at the time. After the 2006 coup, the junta first threatened to have me fired for airing an interview with a taxi driver who was protesting the loss of democracy and I was finally fired after trying to air an interview with Thaksin immediately after the 2007 election. My difficulties trying exercise free and fair reporting are not unique but are representative of the whole profession which has suffered from a lack of freedom and persistent government interference.

What has happened to me is simply an illustration of the lack of media freedom and trouble with government controlled media. Thai media, freedom of speech, and freedom to information are under threat in Thailand. The government is robbing the Thai people of their rights and freedoms and are prosecuting journalist who are trying to do their jobs.

Since my interview, I have had to resign from my position at MCOT because the government has placed substantial pressure on my coworkers and I do not want them to continue to work in fear of government reprisal.

Sincerely,
Jom Petpradab

Contact Information:

Jom Petpradab

nospicy@hotmail.com

Thaksin on state media

2009-09-07T14:52:00.003+08:00

Portraits of the evil one for sale outside Government House 2009.

From the Bangkok Post titled: Broadcaster broadsided for airing Thaksin interview

"State-run media company MCOT Plc is coming under fire after its radio station broadcast an interview with ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in which he said he was ready to negotiate with all sides of politics.

Thaksin gave the interview yesterday on the radio programme Exclusive by Chom (sic )Phetpradab which airs on MCOT's FM 100.5, upsetting Deputy Prime Minister Sathit Wongnongtoey, who is in charge of state media.

Mr Sathit questioned how Thaksin's interview was allowed to go to air on a state radio station".

While Mr Sathit is questioning how Thaksin's interview was on a state radio news program, I think the real question is; why has Thaksin NOT been on the state media?

I know the government and yellows like to make Thaksin out as the true evil one who seeks to destroy Thailand but that is, of course, political rhetoric.

What is a fact is that he is a legitimate news maker and it is a disgrace that the state media has barred him from the airwaves.

This is not a red or yellow issue, not a pro or anti-Thaksin issue, this is a press freedom issue.

Thaksin is the former Prime Minister, remains a political force, and is therefor a legitimate news maker.

I personally think Thaksin is a dirty lying scumbag, but if all dirty lying scumbags were barred from the news there would be almost no news from Government House and Parliament.

In the interview, the host asked Thaksin questions over his feelings towards the monarchy, over corruption, his unusual wealth, and whether he was concerned with harming the country by persisting in politics.

Considering these allegations are persistently leveled at Thaksin, this is legitimate news.

The radio host, Jom ("Chom" should really be spelled "Jom" as his name is จอม) Phetpradab, is not in the pro-Thaksin camp either. In fact, in next week's show - if not fired by then - he will be interviewing coup-maker Sonthi Boonyaratgalin.

Back in 2007, while working for TITV, Jom tried to air an interview with Thaksin for the same reasons. It was just after the elections and Thaksin's opinion on the PPP victory was legitimate news.

In 2007, Jom was fired for his efforts and it is likely to happen again.

And this highlights the sad reality of state controlled media, its not free or fair and only reports one side of the very complex political problems facing the country.

Guns, guns, guns

2009-08-28T14:18:00.008+08:00

*ALL PHOTOS COPYRIGHT*

Traveling with the the Aor Sor (อส) militia in Maigaan (ไม้แก่น) district of Pattani province. August 16, 2009

Its nice to see some needed scrutiny in the media over the proliferation of small arms and militias in Southern Thailand lately.

The photo above I took last week while traveling the Ministry of Interior's Aor Sor militia.

Notably, most of the militia members didnt wear uniforms or travel in a vehicle with any official markings. Tennis shoes, mismatched military surplus pants, and pick up trucks with tinted windows but no insignia or markings to identify them. But they were well armed with M-16 and shinny new M4A1 assault rifles.

Professor Marc Askew, who spends a substantial amount of time in the southern border provinces, has been focusing on the issue of how non-insurgent violence makes up a surprisingly high percentage of southern violence.

"It is common knowledge among people in the violence-wracked deep South that much of the killing that punctuates daily life stems not just from insurgents' much-publicised military campaign against the state, but from personal disputes and local political rivalries. This lethal mix makes the region a highly complex killing field."

The rest of the worth-reading article in the Bangkok Post is here.

And while fixing a percentage of violence upon general criminality vs. insurgency is both difficult and controversial there is little doubt that the proliferation of arms and militias are a contributing factor to frequency of violence in the south.

The recent killing of 12 worshipers in the mosque in Narathiwat is a prime example. The rumor is that an arrest warrant is out for a 34 year old Thai Buddhist militia member but the fact that his militia is under certain royal patronage will likely prevent justice from ever seeing the case.

And the complicated divide between insurgency and criminality is currently taking place during this month's Ramadan in the South.

There has been a spike in the number of violent incidents and accentuated by the car bombing in Narathiwat on Tuesday. Suggestions by the military are being put forth that the recent violence is attributed to the Islamic holy month of Ramadan in which insurgents might be seeking to make a violent statement to mark the holiday.

Alternatively, the Tambon Administrative Organization or TAO elections are being held and, as insiders know and Marc Askew has highlighted, such elections are often marked by political killings.

Either way - insurgency or criminality - the flood of guns and militias are certain to feed into the complicated and intractable configuration of the southern insurgency.

For more on this topic see Rule by the Gun by Nonviolence International and the International Crisis Group's influential report The Problem with Paramilitaries.

Photo of the day: Ramadan at the Pattani Central Mosque

2009-08-28T00:17:00.005+08:00

* All images copyright *

Ramadan and the Central Mosque in Pattani City. August 26, 2009

Greetings from beautiful Pattani - Wish you were here!

2009-08-19T17:03:00.002+08:00

Although I will continue to highlight my (infrequent) blog postings with images that focus on the violent nature of the southern insurgency, it should be remembered that, of course, life largely goes on as usual for local residents.

And, the province of Pattani is a beautiful place with a rich and vibrant culture.

So instead of the usual images of soldiers and politics, here are some photos from my weekend in Pattani province.

Petition highlights hypocrisy

2009-07-31T23:50:00.011+08:00

*All Photos Copyright*
One of the many boxes containing signatures petitioning the king to pardon Thaksin. This box, obviously, has 23, 168 signatures. Sanam Luang, July 31, 2009.

The Red Shirt's royal petition to pardon former PM Thaksin certainly seems to have the Establishment running scared.

The government has responded in Orwellian fashion and will host a TV program on NBT to "improve public understanding of the issue of a royal pardon for ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra" with the goal of informing people who "already signed in support of the petition could always withdraw their names once they have a better understanding".

While the government's awkward and fumbling efforts are reminiscent of recent moral panic campaigns aimed at karaoke bars and internet cafes or the simply bizarre MOSO campaign by the Internal Security Operations Command, the real problem is that it highlights the hypocrisy so ingrained in this Red vs. Yellow conflict.

Those who disingenuously preach that the king is above politics are the same people who draw power and use the throne to advance their own interests.

Aptly put by the Bangkok Pundit: "Needless to say the same people outraged today are the same ones who petitioned HM the King under Article 7 in 2006 to remove Thaksin. But of course that was a "good" petition unlike this one is "evil""

If some people can create a royal petition while others can not, one might ask; who does the palace really represent?

While it might be best to leave that as a rhetorical question to avoid running afoul of lese majeste laws, the Red's petition certainly does expose the fundamental hypocrisy that is a core problem in this conflict.

* Also, dont miss Nick Nostitz's post at New Mandala...simply great reporting!

An elephant named Suwicha

2009-07-15T17:52:00.007+08:00

Suwicha Thakor at trail, photo from Reuturs.

Over at New Mandala there is a great idea to help name a baby elephant at Sydney’s Taronga Park Zoo:

"How about we have a campaign to name the young boy Suwicha (สุวิชา), after Thai political prisoner Suwicha Thakor? Most of you will remember that Suwicha Thakor was sentenced to 10 years in prison for posting digitally altered images of the king on the internet. It is an outrageous sentence, and would have been even longer if Suwicha had not pleaded guilty."

To read more about the rational from New Mandala click here.

To read about the Suwicha Thakor at Political Prisoners Thailand in Thailand click here.

And most importantly, click here to cast your vote to name the baby elephant Suwicha.

In addition, PPT has these suggestions to protest against Thailand's appalling lèse-majesté law.

PPT urges protests against the use of these draconian laws and Suwicha’s harsh sentence:

1. Write a letter to the Prime Minister of Thailand, Abhisit Vejjajiva, Government House, Bangkok, Thailand. Fax number +66(0)29727751.

2. Write a letter of concern to the Ambassador, The Royal Thai Embassy, in your country of residence about Suwicha’s case.

3. Write to your local member of parliament and your minister for foreign affairs, drawing their attention to the lèse-majesté law in Thailand and Suwicha’s case.

4. Urge Amnesty International internationally and at your local branch to take up Suwicha’s case and others charged under the draconian laws that protect the monarchy and police cyberspace.

Mosque shooting fallout

2009-06-17T16:33:00.005+08:00

*All Photos Copyright*
Pondok (Islamic school) student in Narathiwat province, 2008.

The fallout from the mosque shooting last week in Narathiwat has succeeded in exacerbating the religious tensions between Muslims and Buddhists.

From Muslim militants in the South, there has been a flurry of retributive violence directed along religious lines.

In addition to the usual southern chaos, a Buddhist elementary school teacher was shot and killed while on her way to work. She was the 117th teacher killed in the Deep South since the outbreak of violence.

And a particularly grizzly beheading of an Buddhist rubber tapper whose head was left impaled on a post outside his house also occurred on Monday in Yala.

Besides being deplorable acts of terrorism, the attacks do demonstrate how the mosque shooting has triggered a wave of violence aimed at further dividing southern communities along religious lines.

Clearly separatists and their supporters believe the state or those sponsored by the state (Buddhist militias) are responsible and are using the mosque shooting to further expose religious divisions.

The flurry of violence has also shown that southern militants have the ability and means to continue attacks despite approximately 60,000 troops trying to enforce security.

And from the Buddhist side, the mosque shooting has spawned the ugly appearance of the nationalist right-wing criticism against the government.

Criticism at the government's handling of the south is certainly welcome but the critic quoted bellow demonstrates how Buddhist nationalists have a fundamental misunderstanding and dangerous outlook of the southern situation.

According to Prasong Soonsiri, a right-wing nationalist and former National Security Council member, in an interview on the PAD mouth-piece ASTV station and quoted in this Bangkok Post article:

"The former NSC chief said if he was prime minister he could resolve the southern insurgency problem within three months"

Unless Prasong is planning to arrest every southern Malay-Muslim male resident between the ages of 15 to 45 or simply granting the southern provinces independence then his ridiculously bold statement is simply right-wing nonsense.

Prasong also goes on to make dangerous comments like:

"Now, they [the insurgents] had established a network and infiltrated all three troubled provinces. They were trying to build a base of power within the government administration and were fighting to win support from the mass of the people."

This is dangerous because it is a xenophobic allegation leveled at southern residents whom participate in local democratic governance. To be clear, he is talking about Malay-Muslims as, obviously, there are no Thai-Buddhist separatists.

A major part of the problem is the Deep South is the lack of opportunities in local government for Malay-Muslims as well as venues for them to enter into national-level politics.

If xenophobes like Prasong want to keep Malay-Muslims out of legitimate government where they can channel their grievances through peaceful democratic means then the only other option is armed struggle against an inaccessible and intolerant government.

In addition, he raises the specter of jihad:

"Prasong said the insurgents had become more aggressive because they now had more fighters who were trained abroad"

Prasong is orienting his argument in religious terms as it is somewhat implicit that Muslim fighters trained abroad would be jihadists whom would be conducting a religious war.

Ultimately the mosque shooting has highlighted the ever-present and rather precarious religious sub-plot of the southern insurgency.

As the religious frontline of the conflict has been exposed, both Muslim militants and Buddhist nationalists have used the incident it to further exacerbate and define the conflict along religious lines.

At the risk of stating the obvious, were the military or police to identify, arrest, and pursue charges against the perpetrators of the mosque shooting through the proper legal channels much of this religious-based fallout could be mitigated.

But as incidents at Krue-Ze or Tak Bai have demonstrated the rule of law and a resolution to the mosque shooting is unlikely.

And in the absence of a resolution, the fallout from the mosque shooting will be an increased emphasis on the religious component of the southern insurgency.

Gunman kill 11 in Mosque - Media and PM Lose the Plot

2009-06-09T20:33:00.007+08:00

*All PHOTOS COPYRIGHT*

Solider at a mosque in Banang Sata District of Yala back in 2007.

Dramatic events with the mosque shooting in the South (BBC story here) and I am not sure if this should be a rant at the pitiful English-language Thai media, criticism over Abhisit's misguided optimism, or a general commentary about the abysmal situation in the Deep South so it will have to be all three.

On the Media:
Specifically the Bangkok Post's lame story Gunmen kill 11 at mosque: Updated

When 'Suspected militants' kill 11 and injure another 12 people it might be a good idea to question who the 'Suspected militants' are.

Are Buddhist militias to blame, is there factional fighting amongst insurgents like the RKK or BRN-C, are villagers striking back at militants, is it a blood feud, was it overzealous village defense volunteers, a business hit, or troops taking revenge for a previous militant attack in the area?

The point is there are a number of possibilities and it is important to get at the truth.

Instead of simply quoting the army spokesman (which i presume they mean 4th Army spokesman) saying "They are trying to make it look like the attackers are the authorities, because Muslims would apparently not shoot inside a mosque. But it's impossible that it is the work of the military,''

Why is it impossible that is it the work of the military? That might be a good starting point for the media to ask because one of the MOST LIKELY sources of well armed and highly mobile attackers who would shoot up a mosque would be some pissed off troops or those who receive weapons and support from the military!

How about ask the villagers, ask the victim's families, ask the bystanders, ask the village defense volunteers, ask other military units, hell, you might even ask the police!

(on a side note, I did call a local resident in Pattani who said villagers blame Thai-Buddhist militants and I tend to believe this theory which leads to the question of whether there will be revenge attacks on Buddhists in the next few weeks...but that is a whole other conversation.)

On PM Abhisit:
Specifically: PM visits Malaysia for talks on southern unrest

"We remain optimistic that things will get a lot better if we continue emphasizing economic development and giving them a better future," he said.

Yes, this was two days before the mosque shooting.

And what misguided whimsical fantasy did Abhisit base his optimism on?

"Let me reiterate that my government's approach is based on the belief that the key to peace and security is justice and opportunities," he said.

If he really believes that then Abhisit has lost the plot of the southern insurgency.

Justice is simply the lowest common denominator that most people can agree upon about the South. Really, who can really argue against justice?

Sure, justice and opportunities (presuming that these are the economic/development type of opportunities) are nice but that is not the southern storyline that the PM should be following.

How about political empowerment or a substantial devolution of state powers that gives southern residents the power to lead and develop their own communities as they see fit?

But I guess Abhisit is following the ultra-conservative military/royalist/bureaucratic fantasy which imagines that 'benevolent' and 'enlightened' leaders should be sent from central Thailand to rule over the 'backwards rural Muslims' and kindly giving them justice and opportunities. How kind of them.

That is an old Thai fantasy and recently appeared, albeit in a lite-version, with the National Reconciliation Commission's report in May 2006 and was most recently and heavily propagated by Surayud's ultimately useless efforts at addressing the southern conflict.

It is a fundamentally flawed fantasy and should no longer be told to the public as some sort of feel good bed-time-story where the situation is really not that bad and some good people will come along and sort this mess up.

On the Abysmal State of the Deep South:

If the Prime Minister doesn't seem to have a clue about the core grievances in the South and the Thai media are largely uninterested in investigating and reporting on events there then the abysmal state of the Deep South is rather implicit.

Yet what is not immediately implicit is that the authorities and the general public seem unprepared to admit the seriousness of the situation in the South and this is a serious harbinger of the future of the conflict.

If the media and the PM have lost the southern plot, then Thai society is years away from grappling with the social and political concessions needed to build a durable and lasting peace.

Global Peace Index: Thailand 118th

2009-06-05T01:21:00.001+08:00

*My blog posting has been infrequent, to say the least, lately. Due to work and study obligations, infrequent posts will likely continue for the next 3 months.

*All photos copyright*
A "gun locker" outside a Thai night club were gun-toting patrons are requested to store their firearms while drinking inside the bar.

For 2008 and 2009, Thailand's Global Peace Index has been holding at 118th out of 144 countries.

In 2007, the first year of the Index, Thailand was doing at little better at 105th.

This places Thailand in the bottom 20% globally and in the company of some very troubled countries being ravaged by high levels of conflict.

The Global Peace Index is established through "23 qualitative and quantitative indicators from respected sources, which combine internal and external factors ranging from a nation’s level of military expenditure to its relations with neighbouring countries and the level of respect for human rights. These indicators were selected by an international panel of experts including academics and leaders of peace institutions."

From a global perspective, New Zealand comes up shinning in 1st place while Iraq is dead last (no pun intended) at 144th on the list.

From a mainland Southeast Asian perspective, Vietnam looks promising at 39th as does Laos at 45th while Cambodia is much closer at 105th (among other troubles, Preah Vihear hostilities occasionally flare into open conflict between Thailand and Cambodia). Myanmar (Burma), follows Thailand just slightly at 126th.

From a personal perspective, I tend to think Thailand is an exceptionally safe place to live...that is excluding a couple of close calls while working in the conflict plagued Deep South of course.

But, 118th is obviously not that good and particular issues which Thailand scored badly on were political stability, human rights respect, potential for terrorist acts, levels of violent crime, and the likelihood of violent demonstrations.

But this is of course not surprising with the ongoing Red vs. Yellow conflict, other ugly issues like the shocking treatment of the Rohingya boat people, or the festering southern insurgency.

While the index is useful to give a global perspective it is only in its third year and obviously does not yet provide much of a perspective of yearly changes.

It will be very interesting to see the index each consecutive year to measure positive or negative changes.

But as many of the issues which Thailand scored badly on - political stability, human rights respect, levels of violent crime, and likelihood of violent demonstrations - are certainly far from being resolved it is highly unlikely that Thailand's score will improve next year.

I hope I am wrong.

Understanding middle class disdain for democracy

2009-04-30T16:50:00.001+08:00

*All Photos Copyright*
PAD thug at Government House, September 2008.

From Foreign Policy titled the Bourgeois Revolution:

"The middle class's newfound disdain for democracy is counterintuitive. After all, as political and economic freedoms increase, its members often prosper because they are allowed more freedom to do business. But, paradoxically, as democracy gets stronger and the middle class grows richer, it can realize it has more to lose than gain from a real enfranchisement of society.

Soon after acquiring democracy, urban middle classes often grasp the frustrating reality that political change costs them power. Outnumbered at the ballot box, the middle class cannot stop populists such as Thaksin or Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez. Once the middle class realizes it cannot stop the elected tyrants, it also comes to another, shattering realization: If urban elites can no longer control elections, all of their privileges -- social, economic, cultural -- could be threatened.

... And once they turn against elected leaders, angry middle classes, convinced they are right, seem willing to use any means to topple presidents, with catastrophic results."

The author puts forth the argument that traditional champions of democracy - the middle classes - are now turning anti-democratic in a number of fragile democracies around the world.

This is being caused by elected leaders, specifically like Thaksin who had formulated winning democratic electoral strategies, paradoxically showing flagrant disdain for democratic institutions and ruling like autocrats.

Thaksin's impressive electoral success is only matched in the profound disappointment of an opportunity lost.

A strong electoral mandate, sound economic and pro-poor policies, and the 1997 constitution seemed like a golden opportunity for the country.

Yet Thaksin failed, even attacked, democratic institutions like a free press, independent judiciary, transparent election monitoring, and civil society leaving the foundation of a stable democracy in peril.

And as the urban middle classes grew progressively uncomfortable with costly rural development and were impotent at the polls to stop it, the previously unthinkable, a new coup, became a reality.

The leap from opposing military interference in the democratic process to Bangkok residents offering flowers to coup-making soldiers had turned the middle-class-as-democratic-champion paradigm on its head.

(For myself, the most memorable label for such middle class democratic-turncoats was 'tank liberals' as offered by one predominant Thai academic who has now fled Thailand.)

And currently, the democratic institutions that might have served as a means of mitigating the downward spiral of national political conflict have been weakened and delegitimized by Thaksin's misrule.

Now the class divide is coming to an impasse with neither the elites nor the poor willing to negotiate a compromise.

Should the elites proceed on their anti-democratic path, the rural poor will be enraged and increasingly understand their cause as noble and just.

Yet currently, it seems the middle class understands this conflict in zero-sum terms. Everything to lose from one-person-one-vote democracy and very little, if anything, to gain.

So it is likely, in the absence of a creative solution in electoral reform or decentralizing power, that the urban middle classes, represented by PAD, will likely continue with their anti-democratic campaign.

* Hats of to the Bangkok Pundit for pointing out the Foreign Policy article.

Local media no longer feeling the Southern Fire

2009-04-27T13:03:00.003+08:00

*All Images Copyright*
Flying over Yala Province courtesy of a development project tour conducted by the 4th Army August 2008.

From the Bangkok Post titled 11 Militant strikes in Narathiwat:

"There were 11 incidents attributed to southern separatist militants in five districts of Narathiwat province on Sunday night, but there were no deaths or injuries. Police said on Monday that bombs were planted in two locations in Waeng district. In Joh Airong district, insurgents set fire to a school and planted bombs in four places. The militants set fire to two transmission posts for cell phones in Ra-ngae district. In Bacho, they destroyed a power plant, causing a blackout of the entire district. A transmission post for cell phones was also burnt down in Janae district, and cell phone signals were cut in some areas. Police and soldiers were deployed to inspect the affected areas."

While it is clear that the insurgency in the Southern Border Provinces is not going away, it is also clear that the local media have lost interest in the story.

Southern militants on Sunday night demonstrated their strength and logistical capabilities by launching 11 coordinated attacks across the province of Narathiwat.

Local media demonstrated their disinterest by dedicating a parsimonious 7 sentences to the event.

While the Thai press has always been Bangkok-centric, there used to be a considerable media presence in the Deep South in the early years of the insurgency (2004-6).

TV stations, like the old I-TV, used to have satellite trucks and reporters permanently camped out at the CS Pattani Hotel who reported daily on the southern crisis.

Now, news gathering is almost exclusively from local stringers whom simply collect the basic facts from military spokesmen and forward that info to Bangkok where it is hastily organized into simplistic stories like the one quoted above.

In depth reporting on the sources of grievance, the lives of residents, or interviews with militants have all disappeared and local media complain that there is 'nothing new to report on' in the South.

Long gone is the national debate on solutions for and goal of understanding the conflict. This was apparent by late 2006, after the recommendations of the National Reconciliation Commission drifted out of national discourse, local reporting on the south became little more than simple reports detailing violent incidents.

Disinterest in the southern insurgency might seem inevitable while Bangkok and whole country is caught in the tumultuous ebb and flow of the Red vs Yellow political conflict.

Yet there is now a slight lull in the national conflict and the Abhisit Government appears to have weathered the latest storm.

There is even some discussion on reforming Government policy on the South.

While the lull in national conflict and window of opportunity for policy change might not last long, it would be nice to see the local media revive their interest and begin to regenerate debate on solving the Southern conflict.

Otherwise, the conflict will perpetually simmer and 11 violent incidents will continue to earn a mere 7 sentences in the local press.

Batman saves Bangkok residents from certain doom!

2009-04-24T22:22:00.003+08:00

Background:

Red Shirt protesters have commandeered a gas tanker and have threatened to ignite it in a heavily populated neighborhood.

The army and police seem reluctant to use force to retake it.

A dangerous standoff ensues.

Until Batman (or possibly an enterprising firefighter who just happens to have a superhero costume) takes the initiative to introduce a scenario absurd enough to ease tensions so the tanker can be safely removed.

Simply brilliant!

Update: the same guy or a rather cool superhero trend in Thailand?

Silencing the Red Shirts

2009-04-24T16:39:00.000+08:00

*All Photos Copyright*
A Red Shirt's hand-drawn flag emblazoned with Democracy Monument at Government House 24 Feb 2009.

From Reporters Without Borders titled 'State of emergency used to censor pro-opposition media':

Reporters Without Borders deplores the censorship, closure and banning of many media linked to the opposition United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) since the UDD’s violent “red-shirt” demonstrations in Bangkok on 13 April.

The authorities have raided community radio stations in the north and east of the country under a state of emergency. And Internet Service Providers have been ordered to censor at least 67 websites linked to the UDD, which supports former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Not only is cutting off 'Red Shirt' media trespassing upon the fundamentally democratic terrain of freedom of speech but will prove to further radicalize the Red-Yellow divide and increase the likelihood of violence.

The majority of mainstream Thai media is either owned, controlled, or subservient to the Government and the interests of the wealthy, largely Bangkok based, establishment.

And their dominant theme lately has been the vilification of the Red Shirts.

Such one-sided reporting only serves to perpetuate an inaccurate and bigoted view that the Red Shirts are just an uneducated simpleminded mob of Thaksin stooges looking for a quick cash hand out.

While this view of the Red Shirts will bolster certain sectors self-justification for their own positions of power and privilege it also has the potential to move towards inciting hatred.

Instead of reporting on the grievances that the Red Shirts have with economic inequalities, democratic disenfranchisement, elite bigotry, Bangkok centrism, or even reporting on the wider demographics of what is actually a diverse movement the media perpetuates the simple view of Red Shirts as Thaksin following uneducated thugs.

This is a dangerous path that not only polarizes the opposing side by failing to empathize and understand the opposition but it is a slippery slope towards vilifying and dehumanizing.

Similar to the crescendo of right-wing nationalist hatred that fueled the massacre of students at Thammasat University in 1976, there is the potential for the one-sided media to cultivate a climate of dangerous intolerance.

Eventually, the genuine problems that have fueled this national Red vs. Yellow issue need to be debated in the media/public and diversity of opinion needs to be freed so that solutions and compromises can be found.

But if the Thai media keeps voicing the same old self-serving beliefs that provides the foundation for inequality and intolerance then they will not only increase the divide that is paralyzing the country but they will foster a climate of hatred, fear, and ultimately of violence.

Red Guars anyone?

Word of the Day: Amartayatipatai (อมาตยาธิปไตย)

2009-04-22T13:48:00.006+08:00

*All Photos Copyright*
Red Shirt protester in Royal Plaza April 13th.

According to thai-language.com:

Amartayatipatai (อมาตยาธิปไตย) is: government by bureaucracy; government by civil servants; bureaucratic polity.

"The political system called “government by bureaucrats” is a Thai system which is largely controlled by the permanent bureaucracy."

Nick Noztitz writing about the Red Shirt protests in the New Mandala as:

"All speeches on the stage revolved around the term “Amartayatipatai” - the most suitable definition may be “the rule of the traditional elites”, attacking the Democrat government, the military, and members of the Privy Council."

Conflcit and Succession

2009-04-21T12:03:00.012+08:00

*All Photos Copyright*
Royal Guards on the march in Royal Plaza.

In Spiegal Online, there is a fascinating interview with Sukhumbhand Paribatra, cousin of King Bumibol Adulyadej, BKK governor, and Democratic Party member.

On the current political chaos:

SPIEGEL: Earlier, Thailand was considered the epitome of a Buddhist tropical paradise. But today the country is mentioned in the same breath as civil war and chaos. How do you explain the polarization of your society?

Sukhumbhand: There has always been a division between the rich and the poor in Thai society, and there always was an extreme gap between the urban and the rural masses. But that has always been kept under control by an unstated consensus on the part of all political leaders that certain things should not be touched. There was a consensus that political leaders may quarrel among themselves, but they may not take their quarrel to the extent that it would have any impact on the monarchy or to the extent that it would aggravate these fractions in society.

This seems to affirm what many people are saying about the old power structures that allowed a high Gini Coefficient are now breaking down and revolutionary change has begun.

On the King's interventions, health, and worries of succession:

SPIEGEL: In times of crisis, His Majesty, the King of Thailand, has often spoken out as the moral authority of your country. Does that not indicate that Thailand's politicians are too immature to lead the country on their own?

Sukhumbhand: Actually, the king has not come out so often. He has only intervened in a few cases. But when he did, it was always important. But, clearly, we political leaders have proven to be immature in solving differences among ourselves. So the king is needed. But the fact that the king is there to help out in times of trouble allows us to be immature.

SPIEGEL: At some point, the king will no longer be there. Will Thailand then slip into chaos when he dies? Are you afraid of that?

Sukhumbhand: Of course I am afraid. I was not afraid before. But now, after a few years of political polarization, I think that this political polarization will become even more violent.

This is the looming issue for many. How the current political crisis has been influenced by, or is because of, the coming succession is a point of debate. But most recognize that the succession has enormous potential for igniting violence and chaos in an already volatile political landscape.

And on who will be the future monarch:

SPIEGEL: You are a cousin of the king. So you know the royal court's rules very well. How is the successor to the king actually selected?

Sukhumbhand: There are generally two possibilities. The king can pick his own a successor ...

SPIEGEL: ... which King Bhumibol Adulyadej has not done yet ...

Sukhumbhand: As far as we know. If that hasn't happened, then a successor must be found according to the palace law of 1926. But that is subject to approval by the parliament.

SPIEGEL: So his son, Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn, or one of his daughters would become the successor?

Sukhumbhand: No, the palace law doesn't permit a female successor to the throne.

SPIEGEL: So the only choice would be Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn?

Sukhumbhand: That we know of, yes.

I will sidestep commenting the obvious on the crown prince due to lese majeste laws.

But what is interesting is that succession must be approved by parliament. This is not exactly new information, but it does provide context for why various stakeholders understand that control over parliament is of paramount importance now. It also provides context to PAD's 'new politics' of stacking parliament with appointed seats rather than elected elected seats.