Recipe for a Coup

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Makawan Bridge was closed again on Sunday October 26.

The anti-democratic People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) have unleashed their militia members to build roadblocks of piled tires and razor wire and are controlling the entrances.

This comes as ex-pol Salang Bunnag is calling for today - Monday the 27th - to be the beginning of the pro-government group's vigilante efforts to re-take Government House from the PAD protesters.

PAD have reportedly taunted them and said 'bring it on'.

The real worry is that PAD wants a bloody street clash in order to trigger a coup d'etat

So today, we shall see if violence flares and if a coup is triggered.

Who Kills the People?

The propaganda war over the bloody street clashes between the police and the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) is in full swing.

The two VCDs pictured above are being handed out at the various pro and anti government protests sites in Bangkok.

The top one in red is titled "Police Kill the People" (ตำรวจฆ่าประชาชน) and is PAD's view of the tragic events of October 7th.

The bottom VCD is called "PAD Kills the People" (พันธมิตรฆ่าประชาชน) and I received a copy while photographing Salang Bunnag's pro-government speech at Royal Plaza.

Both should NOT be watched if you are averse to the sight of violence, gruesome injuries, and death.

Both should NOT be watched if you are susceptible to believing one side or the other's propaganda.

But if you do want to see how each side is spinning the conflict, then you should really watch both.

What is clear from both - besides that they are both claiming to be the victims in the conflict - are two simple truths.

Thai police desperately need better equipment and training in non-lethal crowd control. They are, as many predicted before the violent clash, prone to violence and poorly trained.

The next truth is that the PAD leaders have whipped up their followers into a frenzied mob and have not simply allowed the violence but have specifically instigated violence. PAD has raised and nurtured an armed militia which is now beyond the capacity of the police and government to control.

PAD, of course, knows that when the police try to reign in the PAD's armed thugs, violence will ensue and will serve their purposes of delegitimizing the government.

Add into this volatile mix the above VCDs showing gruesome violence perpetrated by BOTH the police and PAD and it seems almost inescapable that further violence will erupt.

When Proxies go to War

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Pro-Government supporters cheering Police General Salang Bunnag at Royal Plaza, October 22, 2008.

Retired police General Salang has been repeating his threats to oust the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) protesters from Government House and with a strange twist.

From The Nation:

"Salang said he would seal off Government House to starve off the protesters, who would be denied supplies of food and water for three days.

He said friendly foreign countries have agreed to supply him with the weapons, which would be used in the operation that would not create any loss of lives.

He declined to name the foreign countries or the details of his operation to reclaim Government House from the protesters."

And what 'friendly foreign country' would actually supply weapons to a former police general?

None of course, that is nonsense.

But, in the same way that PAD's million-baht-a-day protest enjoys certain royal patronage, there are other interested stakeholders who would happily arm Salang's vigilante group.

Its not simply that Thailand is awash with weapons anyway or that it is unlikely a difficult thing for former police officer to have access to the state's armories or that small arms dealers feeding insurgent armies in Burma would happy to sell arms or that Cambodia's small arms markets could supply countless weapons or even, god forbid, those Chinese-made 'non-lethal' tear gas grenades that proved to be seriously lethal might find their way back into use but it is more likely that Salang will be armed from the pro-government camp.

And by pro-government, that could simply be the government itself.

Given that the floundering government has lost much legitimacy over the violence that erupted on October 7th it is unlikely that they would risk another confrontation.

But a proxy militia – either funded by the government itself or by a certain unmentionable faction of an unmentionable institution – could certainly be employed to go to war with PAD.