A Quick and Dirty Analysis of the PAD Conflict
*All photos copyright*
From a happier time at government house with the PAD protesters - September 2008.
The following is a quick and dirty analysis of the current crisis revolving around the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) using a 'presenting', 'proximate', and 'structural' framework.
The presenting problem; Protests.
The proximate factors, according to the United Nations, are "likely to contribute to a climate conducive to violent conflict or its further escalation, sometimes symptomatic of deeper problems." And, the following examples are taken from what the Thai public has expressed and I don't necessarily agree with all but they do provide the needed wide scope of issue that people feel are the problems.
In addition, it is useful to divide these into categories such as Political, Social, Economic, and Security yet some issues can be present in multiple categories.
The proximate political factors are:
- Resentment towards Thaksin
- Fears of a puppet government
- Debate of about the nature of democracy
- Dissatisfaction with people in power
- Constitutional amendment
- Political polarization
- Protecting the monarchy
- Protecting Thai political culture
- Political process dissatisfaction
- One vote, one person
- Dis/Reconstruction of the political system
- Resentment towards Thaksin
- Protecting the monarchy
- Political polarization
- Protecting Thai political culture
- Mistrust
- Mass media manipulation
- Aggressive mood
- Corruption
- Economic stress
- Conflict of interests
- Feeling of economic insecurity
- One vote, one person
- Reprisals/Punishment/Treason
- Control of the mob
- Limited capacity for conflict in Thai society
- Mass media manipulation
- Protecting the monarchy
- Mistrust of security forces
Importantly, if a solution is to be reached, it essential to address the structural causes of conflict rather than the presenting or proximate issues in the conflict. If only changes are made to proximate issues then the conflict might momentarily deescalate but it will not go away. This factor, would also explain why the protests have been a reoccurring since 2004.
The structural social factors are:
- Polarized social classes of rich urban and poor rural
- Nepotism/corruption
- Conflict avoidance in Thai society rather than confrontation and resolution
- Debate over democracy - manifest in PAD's inability to gain political power
- Inconsistencies in the justice system
- Limited capacity for conflict mediation
- Economic disparity
- Corruption
No matter what happens in over the coming days and weeks in Bangkok it will not resolve the conflict because the structural problems causing these protests have not been addressed and the cycle of protest and violence will continue.
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