Thai Public Split Over Charter Amendment

Media Advisory
For 16 September 2009






ASIA FOUNDATION TO RELEASE SURVEY: THAI PUBLIC SPLIT OVER CHARTER AMENDMENT

Bangkok, Thailand – Do Thai voters believe a charter amendment would lead to national reconciliation? How much say should the public have over the amendment process? To ensure that opinions from Thai citizens are represented during this time of political turmoil, The Asia Foundation will release the results of its nationwide survey conducted in 26 provinces that gauge the national mood toward amending the constitution, election reform, interest in politics, and more.

The Asia Foundation’s latest survey, Constitutional Reform and Democracy in Thailand: A National Survey of the Thai Electorate, reveals Thai public opinions on issues relevant to the current debate on constitutional reform. Conducted through face-to-face interviews with 1,500 respondents nationwide, the timely survey allows lawmakers, politicians, academics and the media to assess the process of democratization and measure Thai voters’ knowledge of and attitudes toward democracy and the nation’s key institutions.

The survey results will also shed light on key trends and changing attitudes of Thai voters, providing compelling insights into controversial issues such as Article 237 of the 2007 Constitution, electoral reforms, as well as political amnesty and impunity.

Survey results will be unveiled at a press conference. The discussion will be conducted in Thai and English. Cameras are welcome. The discussion will be on the record.

WHEN: 9.30 a.m. – 12.00 p.m. Wednesday, September 16, 2009

WHO: Presentation of key findings of survey by Mr. Tim Meisburger,
Director of Elections and Political Processes Program, The Asia Foundatio

Guest Speakers: Associate Professor Surichai Wun’Gaeo
Director of Social Research Institute, Chulalongkorn University

Dr. Thawilwadee Bureekul
Director of Research & Development Office, King Prajadhipok’s Institute

WHERE: Saladang Room (2nd Floor)Dusit Thani Hotel Bangkok
946 Rama IV Road, Bangkok 10500

About The Asia Foundation
The Asia Foundation is a non-profit, non-governmental organization committed to the development of a peaceful, prosperous, just, and open Asia-Pacific region. The Foundation has maintained a resident office in Thailand since 1954. For more information, please visit www.asiafoundation.org.

Global Peace Index: Thailand 118th

*My blog posting has been infrequent, to say the least, lately. Due to work and study obligations, infrequent posts will likely continue for the next 3 months.


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A "gun locker" outside a Thai night club were gun-toting patrons are requested to store their firearms while drinking inside the bar.

For 2008 and 2009, Thailand's Global Peace Index has been holding at 118th out of 144 countries.

In 2007, the first year of the Index, Thailand was doing at little better at 105th.

This places Thailand in the bottom 20% globally and in the company of some very troubled countries being ravaged by high levels of conflict.

The Global Peace Index is established through "23 qualitative and quantitative indicators from respected sources, which combine internal and external factors ranging from a nation’s level of military expenditure to its relations with neighbouring countries and the level of respect for human rights. These indicators were selected by an international panel of experts including academics and leaders of peace institutions."

From a global perspective, New Zealand comes up shinning in 1st place while Iraq is dead last (no pun intended) at 144th on the list.

From a mainland Southeast Asian perspective, Vietnam looks promising at 39th as does Laos at 45th while Cambodia is much closer at 105th (among other troubles, Preah Vihear hostilities occasionally flare into open conflict between Thailand and Cambodia). Myanmar (Burma), follows Thailand just slightly at 126th.

From a personal perspective, I tend to think Thailand is an exceptionally safe place to live...that is excluding a couple of close calls while working in the conflict plagued Deep South of course.

But, 118th is obviously not that good and particular issues which Thailand scored badly on were political stability, human rights respect, potential for terrorist acts, levels of violent crime, and the likelihood of violent demonstrations.

But this is of course not surprising with the ongoing Red vs. Yellow conflict, other ugly issues like the shocking treatment of the Rohingya boat people, or the festering southern insurgency.

While the index is useful to give a global perspective it is only in its third year and obviously does not yet provide much of a perspective of yearly changes.

It will be very interesting to see the index each consecutive year to measure positive or negative changes.

But as many of the issues which Thailand scored badly on - political stability, human rights respect, levels of violent crime, and likelihood of violent demonstrations - are certainly far from being resolved it is highly unlikely that Thailand's score will improve next year.

I hope I am wrong.

Thaksin claims Thailand's king knew of coup plot

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Pretender to the throne dressed in his regal best. Portraits of Thaksin for sale outside Government House 2009.

From the Financial Times titled: Thaksin claims Thailand's king knew of coup plot

"Thaksin Shinawatra, the former premier of Thailand, has accused the country's revered king of prior knowledge of the military coup that toppled him in 2006."
....
"But in an interview with the Financial Times, Mr Thaksin claimed the king had been briefed by leading generals and privy councillors about their plans to remove the polarising former prime minister ahead of the 2006 coup."
...
"According to Mr Thaksin, the coup was presented as a favour to the king, with his privy councillors accusing Mr Thaksin of disloyalty. Mr Thaksin said he had later been told this by General Panlop Pinmanee, who has in the past confirmed that he met Mr Thaksin but denied politics was discussed."

"Mr Thaksin claims that Gen Surayud Chulanont - who served as interim prime minister following the coup - was present at the meeting with the king."

"Gen Surayud, Gen Prem [Tinsulanonda, the senior member of the privy council] and another privy councillor went to have an audience with his majesty the king and told his majesty that they will do a favour for him by getting me because I am not loyal to the king," Mr Thaksin said. "That started the whole process."

Thaksin had opened the possibility for discussing the long-known but never-publicly-disused role of the privy councilors who likely orchestrated the 2006 military coup.

This was unprecedented, and might have escalated tensions, but has been welcomed as many understand the need to introduce some form of open accountability into Thailand's democratic system.

But this latest broadside against the palace is certain to escalate the tensions. As well as further adding to the republican overtones in the Red Shirt movement.

Its a late breaking story here in the Kingdom, but will be read about in the morning and we shall see if it is the bombshell that Thaksin hopes it is or if Thailand's questionable media buries the story.

Rachaprarop action

Soldiers advance South down Rachaprarop toward Red-Shirt protesters who had just launched a burning bus toward the Army position, 13 April 2009"

Getting Back on Track in Thailand

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A lone protester in front of the military lines during the so called 'battle of Din Daeng'. April 13th.

Tim Meisburger, writing in the Asia Foundation's In Asia Blog, puts forth four ideas for getting Thailand back on track:

"One way to reduce political tension is decentralization. If people have control over and pay for their own local services, there will be no reason for conflict with other provinces, while democracy and accountability will be enhanced. Political decentralization could also help resolve the separatist conflict in the South."

In total agreement here. The march to decentralization might have been slowed by Thaksin and is now throughly stifled by the military and Ministry of the Interior but it has the ability to mitigate Issan's tension with Bangkok as well as empower the Deep South with the means to solve their own serious issues.

"Another way to reduce tension and improve democratic representation is to allow voters to vote where they live. Currently, many people who live in Bangkok are counted for representation in their home village or town. This means not only do they have to travel back to their home provinces to vote, but that their home towns are over-represented in national government and Bangkok is under-represented. If representation and voting were based on where people really live, Bangkok residents would not feel under-represented, and everyone would enjoy better representation and improved political accountability."

Yes, this is long overdue and obviously results in some curious electoral scenarios.

"Third, for a country faced with little external threat, Thailand’s army is probably too big, and it is certainly too powerful. To reduce the threat the army poses to a democratic civilian government, the army should be reduced. This can be accomplished through legislation, and also by reducing the financial resources available to the army."

Yes but no. Obviously the Thai military's overblown budget, economic interests, Orwellian participation in the media, and their overwhelming political power is likely the single most caustic element in the volatile political mix and the greatest threat to democracy but the real question is how to disentangle them from politics and reduce their grotesque budget. Agreed that this needs to be done but doubtful it can be done.

"Fourth, to re-establish the democratic legitimacy of the Constitution, Thailand should consider conducting another participatory constitution-drafting process, similar to the one in 1997 in Thailand, or more recently in Nepal. After completion of the draft, the new charter can be endorsed through a fair national referendum. Concerns raised about clauses in earlier constitutions can be addressed in a national dialogue."

Agreed. The 1997 Constitution was widely respected with its emphasis on civil society, checks and balances but it was also a time when the military was waning both in size and in budget. I am not sure if there is a correlation with the Constitution and the military decline but the 1997 Constitution - with some thought to preventing Thaksin-style abuse of power - is an essential long-term solution to this ongoing political strife.

"And last, but not least, the most important step required to heal the political divide and re-establish Thailand’s democratic credentials would be fresh elections that everyone agreed accurately and fairly reflected the will of the people. Opinions differ as to whether these elections are so important that they should be held first, as soon as possible; or whether they should be postponed until other necessary reforms have been enacted. If the second approach is adopted, elections should be scheduled as soon as possible, to reassure voters and reduce political tension."

Sort of agree...but the cyclical nature of conflict-election-conflict-government falls-election-conflict-government falls seems assured if a snap election were to be called now. Abhisit also seems to know that his chances of being elected now are slim so there will not likely be fresh a election. What might be better is if current Government can provide limited stability for the short term while engaging in a participatory constitution-drafting process then call for an election, there might be some hope of forming a more stable government.

Also of interest on the Asia Foundation's blog and related to the ongoing crisis are:

Abhisit's Big Test and Skip the New Year and Go Straight to the Hangover

The first casualty is the truth

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Troops clearing the streets, and myself, close to Government House on the morning of Tuesday April 14th

Over at the Rule of Lords, Awzar Thi writes:

"What all this goes to show is not which side is to blame for the street blockades and bloodshed of the last few days, but how difficult it has become to believe Thailand’s media. Since 2006, when domestic news agencies and many overseas ones fell over each other to enthuse about the army’s latest power grab, the biases of newspapers, magazines and broadcasters have become more pronounced, their coverage more partisan, and their opinion-makers seemingly more sure of themselves even as things get less certain." ... "But instead of offering useful analysis, most newspaper space has been taken up with headlines jeering at the Red Shirts’ failed putsch accompanied by content-free commentary that has at best been infantile and at worst shameful."

How apt.

The old is dying and the new cannot be born

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Thai troops clearing the city of Red Shirt protesters on Tuesday morning (April 14th) about two blocks from Government House.

Tyrell Haberkorn, at Open Democracy writes:

"Thailand's disorder might be seen in terms of a longer view, where many of its people - under great economic pressures, and amid rooted structures of power - are seeking a transformation in the underlying social and political relations of rule."

She also quotes Antonio Gramsci's Prison Notebooks:

"The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum a great variety of morbid symptoms appears."

Not only are the week's violent clashes between soldiers and Red Shirts - or the violence unleashed 4 months ago by the Yellow Shirts - morbid symptoms of this crisis but the real morbidity has been the ugly politics that have been used to justify the violent trajectories that both Reds and Yellows are on.

Ugly symptoms like the Yellow Shirts bigoted suggestion that the rural poor should be disenfranchised of their democratic rights because they 'to stupid' or too 'easily bought'.

Or the complete lack of journalistic impartiality that not only spawned the vile propaganda machine ASTV but also infects the whole profession. The English language papers, and in particular The Nation, which have long given up professional ethics are now moving into dangerous territory in which they are have not simply taken sides but are inciting hatred and fanning the flames of violence.

Or, and most importantly, the break down of the rule of law. Not only is it being applied unevenly - leaving Yellow Shirt criminals free to further incite violence - but it has failed to draw a clear distinction between legitimate democratic protest and mob violence. Both Red and Yellow are guilty but the state is at fault. Applying the law evenly is essential but so is dealing with every criminal trespass upon the law. Go to a protest fine - carry a weapon, attack the Prime Minister, or take over government buildings and you should get arrested.

But these morbid symptoms, as Gramsci suggests, are the ugly manifestations of an epic struggle playing itself out on the streets of Bangkok, across the provinces, and dividing the nation which is at the precipice of change.

While Abhisit has pulled his government back from the brink of collapse and the Red Shirts have been cleared from the streets, Pandora's box has been opened.

The old power structures that have created one of the highest Gini coefficients, that is often simplified as a discrepancy between the largely urban rich and the largely rural poor, have been dragged out into the harsh light of day and publicly challenged.

There is no going back from this. Change - in the form of a full blown revolution, in a negotiated settlement, or in a myriad of forms - now has momentum.

Calm has returned, but this is an interregnum and no one knows how long it will last.

This week - in photos

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This is more of the 'cutting room floor' in which a number of interesting images that have no general purpose other than illustrating the chaotic week will be posted.

Unfortunately, do to blogger's inability to utilize many images and format them with captions, there will not be captions explaining the context of the photos.

Calling it a Revolution

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Troops at ease outside Chitralada Palace last night (April 12th).

From Michael Montesano in the Malaysian Insider:

"A range of evidence indicates that the country is on the brink of a revolutionary situation. In this context, the fate of the Abhisit government represents a minor consideration.

...

The Thai military may yet use violence against the red shirts. This may require it to mount crackdowns not only in Bangkok but also across much of provincial Thailand.

At best, such an effort will bring temporary quiet. At worst, it may exacerbate divisions among Thailand’s soldiers and policemen, leading to Thais spilling the blood of fellow Thais.

But revolutions need not be violent. The revolutionary situation on the brink of which the country now seems to stand can lead to a new Thailand, one in which there is room for all Thais to participate constructively."

The whole article is really worth a read and makes a convincing argument that the chaos currently playing out on the streets is nothing short of a revolution.

Red Showdown in Bangkok

After a day of chaos and violence, Bangkok is currently in a tense stand off. Thousands of Red Shirt protesters are in control of a large geographic area around Government House. They have armed themselves and have erected a number of roadblocks around the city. In response to this challenge, the government has declared a state of emergency and it is reported that 56 companies of soldiers are preparing to confront them. It is hard to imagine this scenario playing itself out without bloodshed. The photos here were taken this Sunday evening (April 12th) between 9 and 11 PM around the Government House neighborhood.

An Hour with the Red Shirts at Victory Monument

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Photos taken at Victory Monument on Friday April 10.

Jatuporn Promphan, a red-shirted leader, addressing the crowd from atop of a large truck.

There was lots of spray painted slogans around. Some particularly nasty comments were directed at Gen Prem...but a little to comically vulgar to post!

Many portraits of Thaksin of course.

Similar to the PAD protests which had masked guards, there were a few choosing to hide their identity.

"I love Thaksin" claims the placard on the policeman mannequin.

Thai TV news carried numerous reports of hospital access being blocked by the protesters but ambulances, as pictured above, were moving freely through the protest lines.

Just before 6 PM protesters packed up with some returning to Government House but, I suspect, most heading home for the Songkran holiday.

More lese majeste charges

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Royal propaganda posted by the PAD mob during their siege of Government House November 23rd, 2008.

More lese majeste charges are being launched against the foreign media.

Such archaic laws keep Thailand proudly in league with beacons of freedom like Egypt, Kazakhstan, Zimbabwe, and Belarus.

From the CPJ:

The Committee to Protect Journalists condemns the ongoing legal harassment of BBC correspondent Jonathan Head. Police Lt. Col. Wattanasak Mungkandee filed a third criminal complaint this year against Head on December 23, alleging he had insulted the Thai monarchy in his reporting.

And an email from the Foreign Correspondents Club Thailand:

Suspension of DVD sales of Dec 9 event

The FCCT regrets to announce that since the Dec 9, 2008 event ''The State of Politics and the Way Forward for Thailand '' is apparently the subject of a police inquiry, the Executive Committee deems it appropriate to suspend the further distribution of the DVD recording of the event with immediate effect.

We would like to take this opportunity to inform members that DVD recordings of Club events have been misused by certain individuals with their own agendas, in a way that compromises the free speech values the media community and the FCCT stand for. Members are advised to be cautious in and if possible refrain from, sharing or lending DVDs of Club events.

And an example of a BBC article that inspired lese majeste:

"The PAD has justified its actions as being in defence of the monarchy, and the king's portrait has been displayed prominently during all its protests.

Senior figures close to the palace have openly supported the movement.

When the queen offered to preside over the funeral last month of a PAD protestor killed during clashes with the police, it appeared to be a tacit blessing for the movement.

Some in the government even believe the revered king may be backing the movement, although at the age of almost 81 this seems unlikely.

Hard evidence is difficult to come by. But people's actions in Thailand are now being driven as much by what they believe as what they know to be true.

The government and its rural followers believe there is a palace-army-elite conspiracy to rob them of their electoral mandate."

And some comments from the Bangkok Pundit on these recent charges:

"The thing with lese majeste complaints is that someone makes a complaint against you, no matter how flimsly the charges, any prudent person has to hire a lawyer (when the offence carries a jail sentence of 3-15 years do you really want to dismiss it?). You'll have to go to the police station, be interviewed etc. If you are unlucky enough you might not even get bail pending trial. These are all risks. What about the complaint? It costs them nothing. They are free to go on their merry way to think up more ways to lay charges.

Curiously, the BBC doesnt report this story. Do their editors think that one of their correspondents being charged with a law that contradicts freedom of speech is not a story?

Mob rule tramples democracy in Thailand

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Smiling protesters hide a grim reality of propaganda and murderous violence

Special to Times Colonist

Published: Thursday, December 11, 2008

Last week, Thailand's worsening political crisis seemed to ease due to two key issues being resolved.

The Constitutional Court dissolved the controversial, yet democratically elected, Somchai Wongsawat government. This, in turn, caused protesters to end their weeklong siege of Bangkok's international airport. After months of growing violence, calm has returned to Bangkok.

Yet calm is likely to be fleeting at best. This is because the protesters, rallying under the People's Alliance for Democracy flag, have proved not only to be a challenge to the government but have threatened the country's democratic institutions.

The complete article can be found here.